$ETH Evening thoughts (ETH Two-Bottom Pattern)

Recently, ETH's trend has been clearly stronger than BTC, with the price regaining the 2000 level. The core reason is that the W-bottom structure within the flag pattern has completed a breakout. It is this neckline break of the pattern that has driven this upward move; without the structural breakout, the trend would likely have fallen into sideways consolidation like Bitcoin.

However, the current market has shown a turning point: after the W-bottom breakout, the bulls failed to break through the key resistance at 2026, causing the price to stall and begin a pullback. In the short term, as long as the pullback does not fall back into the flag pattern range, the overall bullish structure remains intact. If it drops back inside the flag pattern, the market will test the previous low at 1965 a second time. This level has been tested multiple times, with decreasing support strength. If 1965 is effectively broken, the next support zone below will be around 1916.

In the short term, 2026 is the key threshold for the continuation of the rebound. Only a volume breakout above this level can push the market further toward the 2055–2083 range.

Trading reference

• Short-term strategy: A volume breakout above 2015 suggests a long entry on the right side; a volume breakdown below 1996 with a weak rebound indicates a short opportunity. Keep a close eye on volume, and set strict stop-losses.

• Hourly chart: Hold above 2015, target 2026 and 2055.

• Four-hour chart: A confirmed breakdown below 2000 points to a decline toward 1965 and 1916.

From the four-hour analysis, the price has not yet returned to the 2149–2052 range. All recent upward movements are considered rebounds. Only if the price returns to this range can a phase of stabilization be expected. If the rebound reaches the lower boundary of the range at 2052, consider a half-position short on the left side, and set stop-losses based on the range after entering. Overall, it is recommended to wait for the US stock market to open and observe the subsequent direction.