🔮 Speculation on the Final Outcome of Tonight's BTC Market (2026/05/29 Horns of Charge Edition)

Brothers in the square, good evening. Today is May 29th. The market hasn't looked very good, but the more it struggles, the easier it is to play cards that catch everyone off guard.

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1. The daytime script, you didn't understand

During the day, BTC from a high of $74,552 was pushed down all the way to a low of $72,582, breaking the 14-day low. Above the 75k level, the maximum pain point for options is at $75,000, with a nominal value of 6.2 billion USD expiring today. Who is betting? Do you understand? This is a battle between bulls and bears, not just random fluctuations.

The daily chart has entered an extreme oversold zone, the 4-hour Bollinger lower band was directly broken, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and analysts even pointed out a bearish flag pattern—if $71,000 can't hold, then $63,000 and even $44,000 could be revisited.

2. Three variables that will determine victory or defeat tonight

First: The restructuring of power after options settlement.
After the expiration of $6.2 billion BTC options, the open interest structure will be significantly reshaped. Theoretically, downward pressure after expiration will weaken, but only if—no new negative catalysts emerge during the day. Currently, BTC is trading below the maximum pain point of $75,000, so the settlement looks more like a “bearish realization” rather than a reversal starting point.

Second: Can ETF outflows be halted?
The US Bitcoin ETF has been net outflowing for 8 consecutive days, with a total outflow of $20.7 billion in May, setting an annual record. Yesterday alone, it net outflowed $733 million, with BlackRock's iBIT ETF losing $528 million in one day—second largest in history. Spot ETF fund flows are currently the most critical leading indicator—until a turning point appears, buying volume lacks trust in long-term holdings.

Third: The turning point experiment after reaching extreme sentiment levels.
The Fear & Greed Index has hit extreme fear for two consecutive days—today at 22. What happened the last time it hit 22? Extreme fear often indicates the market is not far from a temporary bottom. But during the Luna incident in 2022, extreme fear persisted for months.

Regarding the bull-bear ratio, call option holders face widespread zeroing out, gamma squeeze risks are accumulating. Once triggered, prices could be driven deeper in a very short time.

3. Market trend projection for tonight

Bullish scenario (about 35% probability):
Global capital markets are diverging—US stocks are still hitting new highs today, and there are reports of a 60-day ceasefire framework (though not finalized). If Trump signs the agreement tonight, risk sentiment could quickly shift back. The market might repair during this window after settlement. The first resistance zone is at $73,000–$74,000; if it stabilizes above $74,000, the next challenge is $75,000.

But it’s important to recognize: the current dominant force remains bearish. Analyst Zhang Lihui clearly pointed out during the day that the 4-hour bearish pattern remains unchanged, and the medium-term outlook is still bearish. However, there are signals of a short-term bullish rebound. His strategy today was: try long positions lightly below $73,000 with stop-loss below $72,500, targeting $73,800–$74,550; if price rises above $74,550, consider opening small short positions with stop above $75,700, targeting $73,500–$72,600. In other words, both longs and shorts can be attempted in the short term, but stop-losses must be set—don’t bet on one side.

Bearish scenario (about 55% probability):
Extreme market conditions tend to wipe out overly confident positions. ETF acceleration outflows, unresolved geopolitical risks, and data showing over 170k liquidations tonight—long leverage has been severely damaged. If US stocks decline tonight or geopolitical risks worsen again, the $72,000 level will be directly exposed to bear firepower. The first support is at $72,000–$72,500; if broken, look to $71,000–$70k. In extreme cases, analyst Xanrox predicts that if the structure is completely broken, targets could be as low as $63,000 or even $44,000—though that’s a medium- to long-term view, and tonight may not reach such depths.

Another possibility: consolidation.
Many cautious funds are waiting outside for confirmation signals. With two days of declining volume, if tonight’s market consolidates within a range, the real direction will be decided tomorrow or over the weekend. The chip struggle will continue, but before dawn in crypto, few will sleep peacefully.

4. Two core reminders for brothers in the square

Reminder 1: After a day of explosive long positions, the market is likely to have intense volatility to digest it. Over 170k traders liquidated, with longs totaling 851 million USD. Tonight isn’t for sleep; the bulls and bears will tug more fiercely than usual.

Reminder 2: Strategy—try small positions, tighten stop-losses.
Analysts are divided—some say “extreme fear is an opportunity,” others say “don’t catch falling knives,” but everyone agrees: extreme market conditions with leverage betting on one side are gambling. Analyst Adam commented on the post-settlement market: when IV drops almost to zero, the market’s next focus is whether funds can flow back in and whether $75,000 can be reclaimed. Until then, trading around key levels with swings is smarter than heavy long or short positions.

Whether tonight triggers a breakout or a compromise, the final decision always lies with your position management. Regardless of right or wrong, those with holdings will smile most gently at dawn, while those hoping for quick riches often end up most disappointed.

Risk warning: The above contains personal subjective analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is highly uncertain; please make cautious decisions based on your own situation.

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📍 All positions should be settled before 3 a.m., and the results are sealed within the weekly chart structure. Please set your stop-loss before entering, and wish all brothers in the square a peaceful landing tonight!

Alternative: If you want a more provocative, traffic-attracting headline, you can use these options:

① Tonight’s $75,000 showdown! Institutions have left, retail holds firm—where do you stand?
② BTC 72-hour extreme tug-of-war: Bottoming on the left or waiting for signals to act?

Note: If you prefer a more aggressive “call the direction” version (strong bullish/bearish judgment), tell me your specific preference, and I can rewrite a one-sided strategy article.

Below is an alternative version—suitable for daily short-term trading style “K-line God” style content for the square account.

5.29 Short-term Monitoring Strategy | Morning Spot Wave Reminder

This morning, BTC continued to oscillate downward from $73,400, touching a low of $72,600. Currently, BTC has temporarily rebounded to around $72,800, down about 1.9% in 24 hours. Ethereum also broke below the $2,000 psychological level. Market sentiment is in extreme fear, with the index at 22, the lowest of the year. Volume has shrunk compared to recent peaks, indicating a cautious mood.

Market review during the day:

In the past 24 hours, $320 million long positions were forcibly liquidated, creating significant selling pressure. 8,400 BTC options are expiring today, worth $6.2 billion, with many call options in the money, causing volatility. CME has launched 24/7 BTC futures trading today; market reactions will need some time to observe.

Evening trading plan:

Support levels at $72,000–$72,500 (short-term strong support), $71,000–$70,000 (weekly psychological defense). Resistance at $73,800–$74,000 (initial rebound resistance), and $75,000 (maximum pain point and bear defense level).

Bullish approach:
If the price stabilizes above $72,000–$72,500, try small longs with stops below $71,800, targeting $74,000–$75,000. Avoid excessive leverage at low levels; keep positions light.

Bearish approach:
If resistance holds at $74,000–$74,500, consider small shorts with stops above $75,200, targeting around $72,500. If broken below $72,000, look to $71,000. Be aware that under heavy options pressure, space for chasing shorts is limited.

Range trading:
Swing traders may consider high selling at $74,000 and low buying at $72,500, within a small, quick trading range, with light positions.

Hedging conditions:
If US stocks open lower tonight or geopolitical risks escalate, reduce positions immediately; if ETF outflows worsen further, abandon left-side bottom fishing and wait for clearer signals before re-entering.

Disclaimer: The above is personal trading notes only, for reference, not investment advice. Markets are volatile; use stop-loss and take-profit orders, and take profits when appropriate!

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