#Polymarket每日热点 Will the new Federal Reserve Chair's appointment bring the wolves of rate hikes?

In the past week, investors around the world have been on edge. The Federal Reserve has changed its leadership, with Powell stepping down and Kevin Wirth officially taking over. And what has accompanied his appointment isn’t flowers and applause, but an increasingly loud warning in the market: the wolves of rate hikes may really be coming. You might be feeling anxious now because you still remember the aggressive rate hikes starting in March 2022, with 11 consecutive increases by the Fed, and the two-year-long draining bear market that followed, leaving everyone with lingering fears. So now, just hearing the words "rate hike" makes your hair stand on end.

So, under Wirth’s era, what will the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision look like?

New Chair Kevin Wirth has taken office. Who is this person?
Simply put, he is a tough nut and the most wealthy Federal Reserve Chair in history. He witnessed the 2008 financial crisis firsthand and holds a deeply ingrained belief: Quantitative Easing (QE) is like a shot of adrenaline or an IV drip for a dying patient—used for emergency rescue, not as a long-term market stimulant or a meal. Therefore, as soon as he took office, he proposed a confusing combination: shrinking the balance sheet + cutting interest rates.

What does that mean?
Many people say, aren’t these two contradictory? One tightening, one loosening. Let me illustrate with a scenario. It’s like a patient who was critically ill and was getting IV fluids daily: expanding the balance sheet, releasing liquidity. Now that the patient has recovered, Wirth believes the IV should be gradually stopped: shrinking the balance sheet to let the immune system recover on its own.

But during recovery, the body is still weak—what to do?
Feed it some nutritional meals: cut interest rates to lower financing costs and stimulate the economy. Shrinking the balance sheet means selling assets held by the Fed to withdraw liquidity from the market. This move indicates he’s preparing to fight inflation by pulling back hot money in the market. He’s dismantling the foundation of the valuation bubbles built on excessive liquidity reliance.

Lowering interest rates reduces capital costs, encouraging corporate investment and economic growth. He understands that the U.S. economy depends on technology and a loose monetary environment. So don’t think he will blindly and violently hike rates. The current U.S. cannot withstand the kind of 11 aggressive hikes seen in 2022. Even if rates are increased, it will likely be weak and short-lived. He’s walking a tightrope—on one side, holding down the inflation tiger; on the other, not choking off the new engine of economic growth, AI. Once you understand this, you hold the key to understanding the global capital market volatility in the second half of the year.

Therefore, the Federal Reserve is most likely not to raise interest rates in June.