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ETH was lying dormant in 2011, BTC was pretending to be dead at 73,800.
The entire market feels like it's been hit with a pause button, trading volume shrinking so fast that no one is playing anymore.
ETH dropped from a high of 2,424 on the 30th to 2,011, a maximum drawdown of 17%.
This 17% wasn't wiped out in a single day; it was a series of small cuts—one day cutting here, another day cutting there, grinding for half a month.
Those who bought the dip think a rebound is coming, while those shorting believe it will break 2,000.
Both sides are betting, but the market stubbornly stays flat, not moving.
The most torturous thing isn't the plunge, but the sideways consolidation.
BTC is the same—dropped from 82,850 to 72,583, a 14% fluctuation, but in the past 7 days, it only fell 2.3%.
What does this mean?
The big volatility has already passed; now it's entering the garbage time.
A market that has wiped out traders is like this—main players are full and digesting.
From a quantitative perspective, the Bollinger Bands width on ETH's 1-minute K-line has narrowed to the extreme.
What does Bollinger Band narrowing mean?
It indicates the market is making a choice.
Either break down through 2,000 or spike up sharply.
The uncertainty is the direction; what is certain is that a big wave of volatility is coming soon.
Sideways consolidation isn't the end; it's the calm before the storm.
When the direction emerges, don't stand on the wrong side.
$ETH