End-of-May Final Prediction: Likely to settle between 1900-2000, market entering a bottoming phase

I've written 19 articles, it's time to give a conclusion.

First, let's summarize the current situation: the lowest price point is $1963, confirming a break below the psychological threshold of $2000; ETF net outflows have continued for 11 days in a row, with ETH products net outflow of $223 million over the past week; Polymarket data shows a 56% chance that ETH will fall below $2000 before the end of May, and a 56% chance of seeing $1500 within the year; whales are heavily reducing their holdings, with about 60 addresses holding over 10k ETH disappearing or merging in the past two months; the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a ten-month low, underperforming the market for an entire year; exchange trading volume has been halved, with spot liquidity severely dried up.

Faced with this situation, any hope of a quick reversal before the end of May to bounce back to $2200 or even recover to $2500 is unrealistic. The only relatively practical goal is to hold onto the $1900 level as much as possible before the monthly candle closes, leaving some breathing room for bulls.

My prediction is somewhat more specific: ETH/USDT closing price on May 31 will fall within the $1850-$2050 range, most likely around $1950. But considering the inertia of the $2000 psychological level, there is a high probability that the final price will be below $2000, closing between $1900 and $2000.

In the short term, the most critical indicators are: first, when will ETF net outflows stop, which directly reflects institutional sentiment; second, whether ETH/BTC can stabilize, if it continues to fall toward 0.025, ETH's weakness will be further amplified; third, if whales withdraw large amounts of ETH from exchanges rather than depositing, it could signal a market bottom.

Polymarket's forecast, I ultimately choose the $1800-$2000 range. This time, I am bearish, but I also respect the market.

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