The market is replaying the shadows of 2022, with ETF funds continuously flowing out

During the 2022 bear market, ETH experienced a prolonged "boiling frog" type decline. Support levels were broken one after another, faith was gradually eroded, and it finally bottomed out at the most desperate moment in the market.

Will it repeat in 2022 now? From a data perspective, Ethereum ETFs have been experiencing net outflows for five consecutive months, with a total redemption amount exceeding $2.4 billion. This level of long-term capital outflow cycle is very similar to that of the time. Investor confidence is severely lacking; as soon as prices slightly rebound, short-term holders immediately sell, making it impossible to hold onto chips.

CoinShares data also shows that last week, the total net outflow from digital asset investment products was $1.47 billion, marking the second consecutive week of large-scale redemptions. It’s not just BTC being redeemed; ETH is also being redeemed. The breadth of capital withdrawal is global.

The only slight difference from 2022 is that the long-term staking demand on the ETH chain continues to grow, and the staking ratio is also steadily increasing, which is one of the few fundamental bright spots.

At the end of May, the price, in a pessimistic scenario, is seen at 1800-1900, and in an optimistic scenario, it’s also between 1900-2100. The key is to see if 1900 can hold. If there’s a sudden plunge in the last few days, don’t be surprised; anything can happen in a bear market.

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