The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy reaffirms full control over the Strait of Hormuz and discloses that in the past 24 hours, 26 merchant ships have passed through its "security corridor" after "permission and coordination." This continues the power struggle between the US and Iran over this strategic chokepoint since April. The US announced a naval blockade after negotiations broke down, but Iran has consistently emphasized its unilateral control. The key change is that, after the ceasefire agreement, navigation has not resumed but instead evolved into an Iran-led "permitted passage" model, which essentially militarizes the strait and institutionalizes its fee collection and control capabilities. The Polymarket market's pricing for the probability of navigation before the end of this month is less than 1%, reflecting the market's complete rejection of a short-term reopening and expecting this controlled, intermittent "security corridor" to become the new normal.

On May 28, the Public Relations Department of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy issued a statement that in the past 24 hours, 26 merchant ships and oil tankers have passed through the security corridor of the Strait of Hormuz after obtaining permission and coordinating with the Revolutionary Guard Navy.
The announcement states that navigating the Strait of Hormuz requires permission and coordination. As previously announced, passing through other routes will be considered interference and will be dealt with accordingly. Last night, several ships attempted to illegally enter the Persian Gulf by tampering with and shutting down navigation systems. After multiple radio warnings from the Revolutionary Guard Navy, two ships were intercepted and stopped, while the others were forced to turn back.
The announcement also states that US forces violated the ceasefire agreement in the region by launching several missiles at an open area near Bandar Abbas airport, causing no damage. In response to this intrusion, the US base that launched the attack was retaliated against. "If the US military takes such actions again, we will respond severely. Control and management of the Strait of Hormuz are entirely under the responsibility of the Revolutionary Guard Navy, and any interference with the strait will be met with our decisive response."
According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of navigation before the end of this month on the prediction market Polymarket has fallen below 1%, with the probability of navigation by the end of next month dropping to 34%.
Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of June? $ETH
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