#TradFi交易分享挑战

‍#24h加密合约清算破4亿美元 # The U.S. launches a new strike against Iran

This U.S.-Iran conflict is absolutely worthy of this year’s Oscar for Best Suspense Film. Both sides keep hitting back and forth while also talking—things take one turn after another, with dramatic twists and turns. Just last weekend, word spread that a draft negotiation agreement had been reached, making us think the official grand finale was finally coming—yet today, another “super twist” appears out of nowhere. The White House blasts the draft agreement as something that was invented out of thin air. Trump is fundamentally dissatisfied with the negotiations. The U.S. military has struck Iranian military facilities again.

Yesterday’s U.S.: President Trump “is satisfied” with the negotiation process

Today’s U.S.: Who says we’re going to reach a draft agreement? Pure fabrication! President Trump is “very dissatisfied” with the negotiation process

Yesterday’s U.S.: It was only defensive strikes; the ceasefire agreement was not broken

Today’s U.S.: Lock onto military facilities—go for it!

Yesterday me: Sitting on the rooftop with a short position, shivering

Today me: Humming a little tune, and somehow I’m making money

These repeated, bottomless moves by the U.S. and Iran not only left scholars baffled, but also triggered widespread cries of pain across the financial markets. Gold fell below the 4400-point integer level and hit a new nearly 3-month low. In the crypto market, Bitcoin dropped below $73,000. In the 24-hour period, liquidations across the entire network surged to $407 million, with nearly 100,000 people forced to close positions.

At present, from a technical standpoint, both “big pie” and Ethereum have already broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart, formally confirming that the bear market hasn’t ended yet. And on the weekly chart, there is also a possibility of completing a five-wave decline with the last wave still to come, after which the sell-off could accelerate. On the daily chart, after Ethereum’s price broke below the 60-day moving average, bulls have no room for protection below. Currently, the price is gently sliding along the lower Bollinger Band, and by this afternoon it has already fallen below the psychological 2000-point integer mark—expected to accelerate further downward.

Recently, I’ve only made two trades. On Saturday, I shorted Bitcoin at 74,500. Then over the weekend, a rebound forced me to cut losses at 76,000. Unwilling to give up, I tried shorting Bitcoin again at 77,300, and I’m currently holding this position. My plan is to treat this position as a mid-term investment, targeting a buy-back near the previous low around 59,000. I believe that with the short trend already established, there’s no need to rush to catch the bottom; instead, it’s still better to focus on staying short at higher levels. For those of you already holding short positions, you can show a bit more patience and keep a broader mindset—hold the position a little longer. For those still in cash and watching from the sidelines, you can lightly add shorts on the rebound, keeping your ammo ready and placing your stop-loss above 74,500. $XPTUSD