Below 75k, will Bitcoin face its final drop?

Author: Mahe, Foresight News

On May 28, after repeatedly battling around $75k, Bitcoin's price ultimately gave way and has now fallen to around $74k. ETH has been oscillating around $2,000. Previously strong rallies in NEAR, WLD, and ONDO have all experienced pullbacks.

Currently, the market fear index has fallen back to 34, indicating a state of panic.

Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total open interest contracts on the entire network have experienced liquidations totaling $470 million, with long positions accounting for $420 million.

Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has been oscillating between $75k and $80k, briefly attempting to break above $78k but failing to stabilize. In the past 30 days, BTC has fallen 3.5%, ETH about 12%, and stablecoins have also declined by 0.15%.

On macro data, Brent crude oil has risen slightly to $97 per barrel, silver has dipped slightly to $73, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased by 182.60 points (+0.36%), reaching a record high. The S&P 500 has gained 1.24 points (+0.02%). The Nasdaq Composite stands at 26,674.73 points, up 18.55 points (+0.07%). Spot gold has fallen below $4,400 per ounce for the first time since March 27, dropping over $50 intraday, a decline of 1.25%.

Reignition of US-Iran Tensions

Middle Eastern geopolitical risks have become another significant external variable. Since 2026, tensions and de-escalations between the US, Iran, and related parties have repeatedly flared over Iran’s nuclear facilities and the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In recent months, the US has adopted a strategy combining military actions and diplomatic pressure, with airstrikes, port blockade rumors, and ceasefire negotiations fluctuating.

Even during windows of ceasefire or diplomatic progress, market pricing of the risk of "reignition" has not fully receded.

On the early morning of May 28, U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. will continue to control Iran’s assets. Iran has begun providing us with what we want, and if things don’t go smoothly, Secretary of Defense Hegseth will complete the job. We can end the war with Iran very soon, and we might have to do so. But I think we don’t need to.

Around 5 a.m. Beijing time, according to Iranian media Fars News, local residents reported explosions at the port of Abadan in southern Iran.

A U.S. official told Reuters that the U.S. military conducted a new strike on an Iranian military base that posed a threat to U.S. forces and commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces also intercepted and shot down multiple Iranian drones threatening U.S. forces and maritime traffic.

Tensions related to the Strait of Hormuz have once again become a focus, with oil prices fluctuating more sharply and global risk assets under pressure. In this environment, Bitcoin is showing more of a risk asset characteristic rather than the traditional "digital gold" safe-haven function—geopolitical uncertainty is boosting demand for the dollar and U.S. Treasuries while suppressing risk appetite, leading to capital outflows from the crypto market.

ETF Net Outflows Reveal Institutional Profit-Taking

Since the launch of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF in early 2024, net inflows have exceeded $57 billion, making it one of the main channels for institutional Bitcoin allocation. But since May 2026, there has been a clear reversal.

According to SoSoValue tracking data, from May 5 to 26, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs experienced consecutive net outflows, with daily outflows expanding from tens of millions to a maximum of $600 million, occurring twice.

Ethereum spot ETFs are also not optimistic; similar to Bitcoin, they have experienced significant net outflows since early May.

This may not simply be panic selling but rather systematic profit-taking from earlier gains. ETF holders, including traditional asset managers, family offices, and hedge funds, have chosen to lock in profits through redemption mechanisms after Bitcoin recovered to the $75k–$80k range. Some funds may have shifted into stronger-performing AI-related tech stocks—while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, the overall crypto market underperformed, highlighting a reallocation of capital within risk assets.

Future Trends

Wintermute posted that Bitcoin has experienced over two weeks of ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion (after six weeks of inflows), indicating institutions are taking advantage of recent gains to realize some profits. More attention should be paid to AI. Nvidia delivered an exceptional outperforming performance, but after-hours trading showed almost no volatility. Surpassing expectations no longer moves the market. If the AI momentum wanes, macro factors (record low consumer confidence, sticky inflation, and the Fed adopting a hawkish stance) will gain more weight, and cryptocurrencies will not be immune.

Bitcoin’s long-term structure remains intact (reserves at multi-year lows, long-term holders continuing to accumulate, CLARITY progressing, and HYPE doing what early-stage tokens should do). But short-term capital flows are driving prices, and currently, they are negative. The key level for Bitcoin is between $75k and $76k; holding this level could see Bitcoin reattempting to push toward $80k. Falling below this range could quickly slide toward $70k–$72k.

Glassnode tweeted that at a price of $76k, approximately 7.75 million BTC are in a loss. This oversupply is a structural feature of a bear market, usually only resolved when weak hands capitulate.

BIT tweeted that, regarding Bitcoin, the recent sustained rise largely depends on the tug-of-war between institutional demand and market supply. Over the past year, Bitcoin spot ETFs and strategies have been important sources of this demand. When ETF inflows accelerate and strategies continue to accumulate Bitcoin, prices tend to rise.

BIT states that the combined net buy-in of ETFs and strategies has now fallen to just $870 million, mainly because ETF funds are experiencing significant outflows and have shifted from net buying to net selling. Until ETF inflows stabilize and pick up again, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the short term.

Analyst Murphy said that by observing the on-chain indicator "short-term on-chain activity weight" (which measures the dollar value of short-term turnover), we can gauge the current market state. This indicator reflects recent speculative, arbitrage, profit-taking, or panic-selling behaviors. Currently, this weight has dropped to an all-time low, only seen at the bottom of bear markets over the past 15 years, indicating a significant cooling of short-term turnover and that economic value is consolidating into long-term holdings, with the market showing low volatility, accumulation, or bottoming characteristics.

Murphy believes that based on this, the current market may be in one of three stages: the bottom of the bear market; a sub-bottom, with perhaps one last dip; or the pre-bull phase of accumulation. But rationally, the pre-bull accumulation can be temporarily ruled out. It’s not advisable to fully commit to a single scenario now; a diversified position strategy is recommended to prepare for different outcomes. The overall long-term position suggests Bitcoin is near the bottom.