Can SpaceX’s market value exceed $2 trillion? How to get an early start with Gate Pre-IPOs

Eastern Time, May 20, 2026, SpaceX officially filed its S-1 prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, planning to list on Nasdaq on June 12, with the stock ticker "SPCX," targeting a valuation range of up to $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, and raising approximately $75 billion. If the upper end of the range is successfully achieved, SpaceX will surpass Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO record of about $29.4 billion, with a fundraising amount more than 2.5 times that of the latter, becoming the largest initial public offering in human history. Meanwhile, Nasdaq has revised its rules to allow large IPOs to be quickly included in the Nasdaq 100 index within 15 trading days. SpaceX's "space capital feast" is accelerating from a long-term narrative into a substantive pre-listing pricing phase.

$2 Trillion Market Cap: What Supports Such an Astronomical Valuation?

From a financial perspective, SpaceX's valuation is not based on its short-term profitability. According to the prospectus, in 2025, SpaceX's consolidated revenue was $17.5k, up 33% year-over-year, but net loss was $20k; in Q1 2026, consolidated revenue was $20k, with a net loss of $18.67B. Why is a company losing over $4 billion in a single quarter still valued close to $20 trillion?

SpaceX's current business matrix consists of three main segments: Space (aerospace), Connectivity, and AI. Among them, the connectivity segment centered around Starlink is currently the only profitable business, with full-year 2025 revenue of $4.94B, operating profit of $4.69B, EBITDA profit margin of 63%, over 10.3 million users, covering 164 countries and regions. Although the aerospace segment generated $4.28B in revenue in 2025, ongoing investments in Starship development resulted in an operating loss of $657 million.

The real imagination supporting the valuation comes from the AI segment. In 2025, AI revenue was only $20k, but operating losses reached $11.39B. However, the prospectus predicts that the total addressable market for global AI, excluding China and Russia, could reach as high as $26.5 trillion. Additionally, SpaceX has signed a monthly compute leasing agreement with Anthropic for $1.25 billion, lasting until May 2029, providing stable medium- to long-term cash flow support for the AI segment.

Starship V3 First Flight Success: Technical Strength as a Valuation Backing

During the IPO countdown, SpaceX completed the 12th test flight of Starship V3 on May 23, successfully deploying 20 Starlink simulators and 2 modified test satellites, with splashdown in a designated area in the Indian Ocean. Despite technical flaws such as booster return ignition failure and engine shutdowns during the test, the successful flight verified core capabilities like high-thrust engine cluster operation, stage separation, thermal protection systems, and payload deployment.

More notably, the performance leap of Starship V3: its low Earth orbit payload capacity increased from over 35 tons in V2 to over 100 tons, making it the most powerful operational launch vehicle in human history. This capability breakthrough directly influences the deployment pace of SpaceX's three major businesses. In connectivity, SpaceX plans to deploy the next-generation Starlink V3 satellites in the second half of 2026, with each Starship capable of launching 60 satellites, providing a downlink capacity of 1 Tbps—about 20 times the current V2 Mini satellites in orbit. For AI, the deployment plan of one million space-based compute satellites, starting as early as 2028, also relies on Starship's low-cost, high-frequency launch capability.

Several market analysts point out that SpaceX's valuation largely depends on its future vision rather than current fundamentals. Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities, states that a valuation of $1.75 trillion or $2 trillion cannot be justified solely by traditional financial metrics, but he also notes that many investors believe SpaceX could eventually become a company worth $5 trillion to $10 trillion. The logic behind this judgment is that SpaceX has successfully integrated three major tracks—rocket launches, satellite internet, and AI—into a synergistic "space economy complex."

SpaceX IPO Timeline and Key Milestones

According to the latest market expectations, SpaceX will launch its global roadshow on June 4, finalize the offering price on June 11, and potentially list on Nasdaq Global Select Market as early as June 12 under the ticker SPCX. The IPO plans to allocate up to 30% of new shares to retail investors, which is uncommon for IPOs of similar scale, reflecting SpaceX's high regard for retail participation.

However, this also means that pre-listing pricing negotiations will be highly competitive. Over the past six months, SpaceX's valuation has experienced a "triple jump": by the end of 2025, internal equity transactions valued it at about $800 billion; after merging with xAI in February 2026, it rose to $1.25 trillion; the current IPO target valuation has further increased to $1.75 trillion. The capital markets are voting with real money for Elon Musk's "space civilization" vision, and this voting process is already beginning ahead of the Pre-IPO market.

How Gate Pre-IPOs Help Users Get Early Exposure to SPCX

Ahead of the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, Gate has launched SPCX asset certificates, becoming one of the first digital asset platforms to offer users pre-listing exposure to SpaceX. As Gate Pre-IPOs' first project, SPCX uses a Mirror Note structured asset design. After distribution, it enters a 24/7 pre-market trading phase, allowing users to trade around the value changes of SPCX before the official IPO.

From a pricing perspective, market differences are quite evident. Traditional private market platforms, such as Forge Global, estimate SpaceX's per-share reference price at about $647, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.54 trillion; Hiive's valuation is even higher at about $762 per share. Gate's pre-split subscription price was $590, and after a 1:5 split, the per-share subscription price is $118. The pre-market spot trading price once reached $189.90, a cumulative increase of 60.93%. This indicates that the Pre-IPO market itself is a forward-looking window for price discovery and early speculation.

It is important to note that Gate's SPCX is structured as a Mirror Note and Contingent Payout Note, and does not represent actual SpaceX stock or equity. Users do not have voting rights, nor does it equate to IPO stock subscriptions. Its core logic is to mirror the value changes of SpaceX before and after listing, enabling participation in the "space economy pricing" at an earlier stage through digital assets.

Additionally, Gate Pre-IPOs offers several advantages: a low subscription threshold of just 100 USDT, compared to traditional OTC platforms that require 45-60 days for settlement and charge 2%-4% fees. Gate's flexible exit mechanisms and zero lock-up periods are more friendly to retail investors. As the IPO window approaches, SPCX will become more accessible for market pricing, making the price discovery process during the Pre-IPO phase more sensitive and efficient.

Summary

SpaceX is aiming for the largest IPO in human history, with a target valuation of $2 trillion, reflecting a systematic valuation of the "space economy" era by the capital markets. Starlink provides the current profit base, Starship determines the pace of technological deployment, and AI offers a vision for the next decade—these three are interconnected, forming the fundamental narrative for SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation. The IPO window is set for mid-June, and before the official bell, Gate Pre-IPOs provides users with an early channel for price discovery.

Whether the final valuation lands at $1.75 trillion or $2 trillion, SpaceX's listing will be one of the most watched events in global capital markets in 2026. For investors seeking early positioning, understanding SpaceX's core business logic, key IPO milestones, and managing positions and risks through Gate's Pre-IPOs products are pragmatic ways to gain an edge in this historic capital event.

FAQ

When exactly is the SpaceX IPO?

A: According to the latest market expectations, SpaceX will launch its global roadshow on June 4, finalize the offering price on June 11, and list on Nasdaq Global Select Market as early as June 12, with the stock ticker SPCX.

Is the $2 trillion valuation for SpaceX reasonable?

A: From traditional financial metrics, SpaceX's current profitability does not support this valuation. However, the market values more on its long-term imagination—sustained profitability growth of Starlink, low-cost launches of Starship, and the $26.5 trillion total addressable market for AI compute services.

What is the difference between Gate Pre-IPOs' SPCX and SpaceX stock?

A: SPCX is a Mirror Note structured asset, not directly linked to SpaceX stock or equity, and users do not have shareholder rights or voting rights. Its core logic is to reflect the value changes before and after SpaceX's listing, supporting 24/7 pre-market price discovery.

Why do different platforms show such large differences in pre-IPO SpaceX prices?

A: Different platforms use different product structures, settlement mechanisms, and client bases. Traditional OTC platforms (like Forge, Hiive) mainly serve qualified investors, involve actual share delivery, and have longer lock-up periods and higher fees; while CEX platforms' Pre-IPO products use synthetic exposure or asset certificates, offering higher liquidity, lower thresholds, and different pricing mechanisms.

What impact will SpaceX's IPO have on the commercial space industry?

A: If SpaceX successfully lists at a valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, it will set a very high valuation benchmark for the global commercial space sector, potentially accelerating more companies into capital markets and prompting other countries' commercial space industries to speed up development from an international competitive perspective.