Polymarket initiates real-name verification and blocks 35 countries, as prediction markets enter the KYC era; officials deny: only in the testing phase

Market Prediction Polymarket is Moving from "Anonymous Betting" to "Real-Name Verification," but the official denies that the news is a test
(Background: End of the anonymous betting era in prediction markets? Polymarket reportedly to strengthen KYC verification)
(Additional background: U.S. House investigates insider trading on prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi to prevent officials from profiting using "state secrets")

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• 35 countries have been blocked, including Iran, Russia, and North Korea
• Series of insider trading cases exposed, U.S. military soldiers earning $400k using confidential information
• Trump supports CFTC jurisdiction, prediction markets to welcome "exclusive referee"
• From anonymous to real-name: the "institutionalization" process of prediction markets

The leader in prediction markets, Polymarket, is quietly changing the rules of the game. According to The Information on Wednesday (5/28), this platform, which started with "anonymous betting," has begun implementing mandatory KYC (Know Your Customer) procedures, requiring traders to submit identification documents to comply with regulatory pressures from around the world.

Polymarket still operates anonymously, with users only needing to connect their wallets to place bets, without showing any ID. However, with South Korea, Indonesia, and other Asian countries blocking access, and after the U.S. House discovered insider trading cases, Polymarket is accelerating its shift from a "wild prediction market" to an "institutional-grade trading platform."

But Polymarket's Vice President of Engineering, Josh Stevens, responded to The Information's report on 5/28:

The report is not true. Polymarket is currently testing a new beta product, which only requires some trial users to complete KYC verification during testing. The existing Polymarket website has not added any KYC requirements. He further stated that after the testing phase ends, users will no longer need KYC.

35 countries have been blocked, including Iran, Russia, and North Korea

As of Wednesday, Polymarket has "geographically blocked" 35 countries, restricting residents from these regions from placing bets on the platform. These include Iran, Russia, and North Korea, which are under sanctions due to military conflicts.

According to Polymarket's official records, geographic blocking means residents of these countries cannot place orders on the platform. However, the blockade itself is not the key point; what matters is that Polymarket now requires all traders to complete identity verification to ensure bettors are from the corresponding regions.

This move directly responds to anti-gambling laws in multiple countries. The Korea Communications Standards Commission (KCSC) officially began reviewing Polymarket on 5/22, determining whether 32 Korean political betting markets on the platform involve illegal gambling. Indonesia's Ministry of Communications also announced on 5/25 that it had blocked Polymarket, labeling it as an "illegal online gambling platform," triggered by a betting market on the platform about President Prabowo's "when will he step down."

Insider trading cases continue to surface, U.S. military soldiers earning $400k using confidential information

Polymarket's anonymous nature makes user identities difficult to trace, leading to a series of insider trading cases. The most notable was a report on 5/21: a U.S. military soldier used confidential intelligence to bet early on the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, ultimately earning $400k on Polymarket.

Chairman James Comer of the U.S. House Oversight Committee then announced an investigation into insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi, demanding internal user review and trading monitoring data from the platforms. Bipartisan lawmakers are also drafting new legislation to fully ban government officials and Congress members from participating in prediction markets.

Trump supports CFTC jurisdiction, prediction markets to welcome "exclusive referee"

Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday, publicly supporting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) having "exclusive jurisdiction" over prediction markets.

Trump's statement aligns with CFTC Chair Michael Selig's stance, who has sued several state officials, accusing them of using local gambling laws to target Polymarket and Kalshi. Interestingly, Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., is a strategic advisor for Kalshi and also a consultant for Polymarket—both major competing platforms favored by the White House family.

From anonymous to real-name: the "institutionalization" process of prediction markets

Polymarket's KYC transition is not an isolated event. Binance announced on 5/25 the launch of the "Event War Chest" feature on its official wallet, which also requires users to complete KYC to participate. Prediction markets are moving from "on-chain anonymous betting" toward "institutional-level compliant trading."

Analysts point out that the significance of KYC verification is not only to avoid being blocked by multiple countries but also a crucial step in attracting institutional funds. When traditional investment funds and insurance companies start allocating to prediction markets, they need traceable transaction records and clear identity proof, rather than just wallet addresses.

If Polymarket fully implements KYC, it is expected to become the first "real-name era" benchmark in the prediction market industry. But for retail traders, this also means the convenience of anonymous betting will be gone forever.