5.28 Market Analysis — Brief Update

Trend Direction: The Air Force Army is Approaching, Unstoppable

BTC:

The bearish trend continues, with the daily chart fully below the 5-day moving average, ending the sideways consolidation during the decline, and entering the second phase of the downward channel.

There isn’t much to say about the market; the 12H level MA180 and MA250 intersect near 73542, and support from these two moving averages at this level is certain. However, since a significant rebound and a prolonged sideways movement have already occurred around this level’s moving averages, breaking through this position is highly probable. Short-term traders can try to buy the rebound at this level for quick gains (a sharp drop with a pin bar target at 73024).

The main structure continues to be bearish, so trading should mainly focus on shorting rebounds. If the daily chart first drops then rises, consider short-term longs around 73542. For shorts, it’s recommended to look for entries in the resistance zone 74896-75500, such as around 75155. Since I haven’t been trading BTC recently, I won’t specify exact points. Overall, control leverage well and confidently short.

Below support levels, aside from the two mentioned above, look down to 71946-72454. If broken, next support is 69483-70876, which may be reached today.

ETH:

Yesterday, I provided a detailed update on ETH. The daily chart declined to 2055 before rebounding. Unfortunately, it didn’t reach the previously mentioned 2041-2052 zone, but those monitoring the market probably took profits manually, just like me. Although the support level of first falling then rising wasn’t hit, the resistance level was perfectly reached, with the intraday high at 2096, matching yesterday’s suggested range of 2088-2098.

After reviewing yesterday’s situation, let’s return to today’s chart—similar to BTC, after ending the sideways consolidation of the decline, ETH reached the low point of May 23. Will this form a double bottom rebound? I think the probability is low; it’s more likely to continue declining into new lows. The reasons are similar to BTC’s analysis, so I won’t elaborate further. Notably, ETH differs from BTC: all lower-level timeframes lack moving average support, with bearish alignment above and divergence of moving averages, indicating a more typical downtrend. Therefore, when attempting to catch rebounds, besides referring to the support zones, also pay attention to BTC’s reaching the levels mentioned above.

In previous trading days, it’s evident that the probability of making a new daily low compared to the previous day is low. If a new daily low occurs, consider closing short positions at support around 1990 and trying to catch the rebound. For short positions on rebounds, target the 2041-2056 zone, with today’s target at 1894-1951, and a break below to 1819-1871.

US stocks started a correction yesterday. After two months of continuous new highs and rapid gains, a significant correction is inevitable. Coupled with the downward trend in the crypto sector, the US stock correction could become the biggest accelerator.

Trading Suggestions (ETH)

1. Trend position short: Hold onto it; only consider closing at 1819-1871 if a significant breakdown occurs today.

2. Short-term position short: If the market first drops then rises, close at 1997; if it rebounds to 2041-2056, open a short again; if it first rises then drops, extend the short-term stop-loss down to 1956.

3. Short-term position long: Watch BTC’s approach to 73542; if ETH is also near 1990 at that time, go long at this level, with a take profit at 2041 and stop loss at 1960 (if it first rises then drops, do not go long).

Support and Resistance Zones

BTC

Support: 73024-74156, 71946-72454, 69483-70876

Resistance: 74806-75500, 76588-77601, 78156-79257

ETH

Support: 1990-2041, 1894-1951, 1819-1871

Resistance: 2088-2140, 2160-2204, 2236-2273