Oil prices plunge, global stock markets surge—markets are already celebrating in advance, but the agreement hasn’t been signed

On May 26, as news spread that the “framework agreement is 95% complete,” global financial markets staged a full-scale spree of celebration. Oil prices plunged, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the U.S. surged, gold took a nosedive, and the cryptocurrency market also saw a broad-based rebound at the same time—Bitcoin jumped 1.6% within 24 hours, Ethereum rose by nearly 3%, and 110,000 traders were liquidated.

The market is betting real money on reaching the agreement. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of “reaching an agreement before the end of May” has surged from less than 20% a few days ago to more than 37%, and one user even posted publicly, betting: “Yes—I believe a major diplomatic breakthrough will be achieved before the end of May.”

But the market is celebrating something that hasn’t been signed yet.

Even Trump himself said that “a breakdown is still possible,” and White House officials emphasized that “the agreement has not been finalized.” Iran not only hasn’t confirmed it, but also actively poured cold water, saying that the agreement doesn’t mean that signing is about to happen. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is only part of the framework agreement— the real nuclear issues have not been resolved at all.

The market’s reaction is a classic case of buy the rumor. Once the agreement isn’t signed on May 31, this rally driven by expectations will fall back just as quickly. For the crypto market, the way geopolitical risk premiums are priced is very simple: if the agreement is reached, oil prices fall, inflation eases, and the Fed’s rate-cut room opens up—risk assets benefit across the board; if it falls apart, oil rebounds, risk-aversion sentiment returns to the market, and risk assets will come under pressure.

But the problem is that the market has already priced in the premium for “reaching an agreement.” If the agreement falls through by the end of the month, the downside swings will be very intense. On Polymarket, I bet “No”—if the market misjudges, this is a huge prediction gap.

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