The crypto market today is full of conflicting signals. On one hand, Strategy is preparing to buy Bitcoin back into the treasury again. On the other hand, inflation has surged to 3.56%, which could further push Ethereum’s price down.

This is truly a real game of flip-flops. After Michael Saylor previously said he might sell some Bitcoin to pay dividends, he has now sent signals through social media that he’s back to making another round of purchases. Strategy currently holds 818,334 Bitcoin, with an average cost of $75,537. CEO Phong Le also clarified that the dividend-selling plan is merely a liquidity strategy, because the spot Bitcoin market has more than $60 billion in daily trading volume—billion-dollar-level sales from them barely create any ripple.

But that’s exactly what’s worrying. This hot inflation data could keep the Fed delaying interest rate cuts, which would put downward pressure on Bitcoin. When looking at the technical chart, we can see Bitcoin forming a rising wedge pattern, which often signals a reversal into a bearish trend. Institutional buying momentum has also started to fade—especially as Strategy’s stock is trading below its set valuation. Many analysts warn that if the price breaks below the $78,600 support level, we could see a sell-off that drags it down to $70,000. The current price of Bitcoin is $75,020, putting it in a fairly risky zone.

As for Ethereum, the situation is even worse. Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum has already fallen by more than 35% over the past year, and it remains stuck below the resistance line it has been under since 2022. It has just tested that resistance, but was slapped back down. It has already broken below the 20-month moving average. Global market data indicates there are as many as 3.62 million Ethereum coins lined up for sale on exchanges, in contrast to Bitcoin, which people are flocking to withdraw and hold long-term. If buying pressure keeps drying up, Ethereum could plunge another 40%. The current price is $2,060, putting it at risk of returning to the 2020 lows.

There’s another important variable: the U.S. CLARITY Act. Bill Hughes, a lawyer from Consensys, warns that Congress only has a few weeks left before the August recess. After that, it will move into election campaign mode. If the bill isn’t pushed through in time, the crypto industry in the U.S. may have to wait until 2030 for clear legislation. This is truly a make-or-break moment for lawmakers. Passing it on time could ignite institutional confidence and full-scale market entry, but if it stalls, investment funds may flow out to other regions instead.

Today’s Fear and Greed Index is 48, reflecting market conditions as it moves into a critical period. This is a time to be careful of false signals.