‍#Polymarket每日热点

The news about Iran-U.S. negotiations is all mixed, confusing and unpredictable. Even more perplexing than the negotiations is the trend of Bitcoin, which was bullish a few days ago and has now fallen below $76k. First, let’s state the conclusion: I bet Bitcoin’s price at the end of May will be $70k! Now, let me explain the reasons:

🔥 ‌1. Institutional “Cost Defense Barrier” Has Been Built‌

‌MicroStrategy’s holdings anchored: Currently holding 818k BTC,‌ with an average cost of $75,537,‌ adding 21k BTC in May (costing $1.6 billion)

‌BitMine staking lock-up: 4.7 million ETH (about $76k) staked on their proprietary platform, effectively freezing liquidity

‌Key signal‌: When BTC approaches $70,000, large institutional trading platforms show‌**single-day buy orders exceeding $500 million**‌, proving that $70,000 has become an “institutional consensus defense line”

📉 ‌2. Technical “Triple Bottom” Pattern Completed‌

‌Weekly level‌: The range of 69,800–71,200 has been tested three consecutive weeks without breaking (5/13–5/27)

‌Volume validation‌: Each dip to $70,000 sees a 30%–40% decrease in trading volume, indicating exhausted selling pressure

‌Divergence in indicators‌: RSI (14) lows gradually rise (35→42→45), forming a classic bottom-up reversal signal. The level of 75,854 remains above the key support zone, and bears lack the strength to break through the 71,000 fortress

🌍 3. Macro bearish factors are fully priced in‌

‌Federal Reserve policy‌: The probability of a rate hike in June rises to 68%, but crypto derivatives show no signs of panic (Put/Call ratio = 0.89)

‌US Dollar Index‌: DXY breaks through 99, but Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient drops to -0.11 (diverging from traditional risk asset logic)

‌Real drivers‌: BlackRock’s spot ETF sees net inflows of $1.14 billion in one week, countering macro pressure

The market proclaims with real money: “$70,000 is the new baseline, not the top or bottom”‌

⏳ ‌4. May’s closing countdown: Bears have no ammunition left‌

‌Time window‌: Only 4 trading days left until May 31

‌Futures data‌:

Open interest: $36.4 billion (all-time high)

Funding rate: -0.003% (bears pay)

‌Options bets‌: Open interest for $70,000 put options plummeted 37%, large traders are retreating from short positions

‌Conclusion‌: If bears want to aggressively attack $70,000, they need to sell an average of 1.5 billion BTC daily (current exchange reserves can only support 3 hours of selling)