S21 vs M60 vs A15 Full Analysis: Will Bitcoin Mining Still Be Profitable in 2026?

In April 2024, Bitcoin’s fourth halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, and more than two years have passed since then. This supply-side shock—repeatedly discussed by the market—has entered a phase of structural stress testing after Bitcoin’s price reached an all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025. As of May 27, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $75,773.2 in Gate market data, representing a cumulative pullback of more than 31% from its peak over the past year. Meanwhile, the hash price has fallen from about $100/PH/day before the halving to about $33.30/PH/day, a decline of more than 66%.

Against this backdrop, “Is Bitcoin mining still profitable after the halving?” has become the core question facing industry participants.

2026 Mining Reality: Triple-Compression Forces Stacking Up

The profit-compression effect after the halving continues to ferment even today, two years later. In the first half of 2026, the Bitcoin mining industry is simultaneously under pressure from three structural forces: the supply shock caused by the block rewards permanently halving, competitive pressure from the entire network’s hash rate operating within historically high ranges, and the ongoing rise in energy costs across the world’s major mining hubs.

Industry Structural Impacts

As of Q1 2026, the weighted average cash cost for listed mining companies was about $77,000 per Bitcoin. If hardware depreciation, site maintenance, and corporate management expenses are included, the “all-in” cost basis increases to more than $100,000. JPMorgan’s estimate is relatively conservative, at about $77,000. Based on the current market price of approximately $75,773.2, the industry as a whole is in a deep-loss position.

Hash price—an essential metric that measures a miner’s daily revenue per unit of hash rate—has fallen from roughly $36–$38/PH/day in Q4 2025 to about $33.30/PH/day in early May 2026, nearing the historic low of $28 set on February 23.

At the level of market debate, disagreements within the industry about the mining outlook are becoming increasingly prominent:

• The pessimists believe that the current average production cost is structurally significantly higher than the market price, which will force miners to continuously sell their inventory Bitcoin to pay electricity bills and operating costs, thereby forming sustained selling pressure in the market. Data shows that in Q1 2026, listed mining companies collectively sold more than 32,000 BTC, exceeding the total for all of 2025.
• The neutralists point out that the rapid clearing of inefficient hash power is a necessary adjustment for network health. Once inefficient hash power exits, difficulty reductions will effectively improve the profit margins of remaining miners. Since 2026, the network has already made multiple downward difficulty adjustments.
• The optimists focus on the narrative of diversified transformation by mining companies, arguing that new businesses such as AI hash power hosting are reshaping revenue structures. According to statistics, the cumulative contract amounts for AI and HPC already disclosed by several listed mining companies exceed $70 billion.

Background and Timeline

The following timeline lays out key milestones since the halving:

• April 2024: The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
• Second half of 2025: Major mining hubs increased industrial electricity prices, compounded by rising depreciation costs for mining machines, pushing the industry’s break-even line upward.
• October 2025: Bitcoin’s price reached an all-time high of about $126,000, and the network hash rate reached a peak of about 1,160 EH/s.
• December 2025: Regulatory actions in China’s Xinjiang region were strengthened again; combined with higher winter energy costs, hash rate began to decline.
• February 2026: On February 23, hash price fell to $28/PH/day, setting a historic low.
• March 2026: Hash price was further compressed to around $29.15/PH/day, then rebounded after the difficulty adjustment.
• Early May 2026: Hash price saw a modest recovery to about $33.30/PH/day; the network’s 30-day hash rate moving average was approximately 968 EH/s.

2026 Full Panorama Comparison of Mainstream Mining Machine Efficiency

In an environment where hash price remains under sustained pressure, the energy-efficiency ratio of mining machines—measured in “Joules per terahash” (J/TH)—has become the key variable determining whether mining remains financially viable.

Below are core parameter comparisons for the three major mainstream SHA-256 ASIC miner series in 2026:

| Miner model | Typical hash rate (TH/s) | Typical power (W) | Energy efficiency (J/TH) | Cooling method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Antminer S21 (Basic) | 200 | 3,500 | 17.5 | Air cooling | | Antminer S21 Pro | 234 | 3,510 | 15.0 | Air cooling | | Antminer S21 XP | 270 | 3,645 | 13.5 | Air cooling | | WhatsMiner M60 (Basic) | 172—186 | 3,422—3,441 | 18.5—19.9 | Air cooling | | WhatsMiner M60S+ | 204—212 | ~3,400 | 16.5—17.0 | Air cooling | | Avalon A15 (Basic) | 185—194 | 3,420—3,647 | 18.5—18.8 | Air cooling | | Avalon A15 Pro+ | 209—240 | 3,300—3,660 | 15.5—17.8 | Air cooling | | Antminer S23 Hydro 3U | 1,160 | 11,020 | 9.5 | Liquid cooling / Immersion |

Note: According to industry analysis and manufacturers’ publicly disclosed parameters, some model data have reasonable variation ranges.

Efficiency tiers: The above miners can be divided into three tiers based on energy efficiency: older-generation models are around 20 J/TH; mainstream running models are around 15 J/TH, such as S21, M60S, A1466; and new-generation flagship models are around 10 J/TH, such as the S23 series.

S21 Series: Efficiency Leadership with the Widest Coverage

Bitmain’s Antminer S21 series is currently the newest-generation product line with the widest market coverage. The S21 Pro uses 5nm chip technology; at 234 TH/s hash rate, its energy efficiency ratio is about 15.0 J/TH. The S21 XP further optimizes energy efficiency to 13.5 J/TH. In addition, based on the already mass-produced S23 Hydro (9.5 J/TH), both product routes—air cooling (air-cooled) and liquid cooling—are covered in the product lineup.

The competitiveness of the S21 series lies in its complete product gradient and a relatively mature supply chain.

M60 Series: MicroBT’s Steady Competitor

MicroBT’s WhatsMiner M60 series basic models have an energy efficiency ratio of about 19.9 J/TH with hash rates of 172—186 TH/s; the upgraded M60S+ can raise energy efficiency to about 16.5 J/TH. Industry analysis indicates that the M60 series performs well in balancing hash rate and energy efficiency, continuing MicroBT’s traditional approach of “balanced configuration.”

In the competitive landscape of 2026, the core value of the M60 series may not be an extreme breakthrough in energy efficiency, but rather the supply-chain stability it provides as a “second supplier.” For large-scale mining farms, avoiding excessive reliance on a single manufacturer is a key consideration in risk management.

A15 Series: Canaan’s Diversified Configuration Options

Canaan’s Avalon A15 series covers the 15.5—18.8 J/TH energy-efficiency range; the A15 Pro+ can reach about 15.5 J/TH, while the basic A15 is about 18.8 J/TH. In terms of hash-rate scale, the A15 XP can reach up to 212 TH/s, and higher-end models like the A1566I can provide 261 TH/s of hash rate, but power consumption increases accordingly to 4,500 W.

In its positioning, the A15 series places greater emphasis on “diversified options.” It does not pursue an absolute efficiency champion; instead, it offers differentiated hardware solutions across different price tiers. For small and medium-sized mining farms that prefer to diversify vendor risk, the A15 series provides a third path between Bitmain and MicroBT.

Trade-Off Between Liquid-Cooled Flagships and Standard Air-Cooled Units

New-generation liquid-cooled flagship models (such as S23 Hydro 3U, with 9.5 J/TH efficiency and 1,160 TH/s hash rate) significantly outperform air-cooled models in energy-efficiency metrics. However, liquid cooling places higher requirements on infrastructure: it needs a water-cooling circulation system, three-phase high-voltage power supply, and more complex thermal-management deployments. By comparison, air-cooled flagship models such as the S21 XP (13.5 J/TH, 270 TH/s) can be directly connected to standard data center racks, with much lower deployment barriers.

Break-Even Calculations Across Electricity Price Ranges

A mining rig’s actual profitability is not determined by a single parameter. Instead, it is a combined function of four variables: hash rate, energy efficiency, network difficulty, and electricity price. The following calculations are based on network parameters as of late May 2026, using the Bitcoin price of $75,773.2 from Gate market data and an assumed hash price of about $33.30/PH/day as the calculation benchmarks.

Core Calculation Formula and Parameter Assumptions

• Daily BTC revenue = miner hash rate (PH/s) × hash price (USD/PH/day)
• Daily electricity consumption of the miner = miner power consumption (kW) × 24 hours

Assuming hash price is about $33.30/PH/day, excluding pool fees. It should be noted that hash price fluctuates dynamically with Bitcoin price, total network hash rate, and transaction fees. The following calculations are reference values based on current market conditions; actual profitability will vary as network conditions change.

Daily Net Profit for Different Models Under Different Electricity Prices

| Miner model | Hash rate (PH/s) | Daily revenue (USD) | $0.04/kWh | $0.06/kWh | $0.08/kWh | $0.10/kWh | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S21 Pro 234TH (15.0 J/TH) | 0.234 | 7.79 | +4.42 | +2.62 | +0.82 | -0.98 | | S21 XP 270TH (13.5 J/TH) | 0.27 | 8.99 | +6.49 | +4.80 | +3.11 | +1.42 | | M60S+ 204TH (16.5 J/TH) | 0.204 | 6.79 | +3.52 | +1.76 | +0.00 | -1.76 | | Avalon A15 194TH (18.8 J/TH) | 0.194 | 6.46 | +2.27 | +0.11 | -2.05 | -4.21 | | Avalon A15 Pro+ 240TH (15.5 J/TH) | 0.24 | 7.99 | +5.22 | +3.40 | +1.58 | -0.24 | | S23 Hydro 3U (9.5 J/TH) | 1.16 | 38.63 | +32.04 | +28.14 | +24.24 | +20.34 |

Note: Daily revenue is calculated using hash price of $33.30/PH/day. Daily net profit equals daily revenue minus electricity costs (electricity price unit: USD/kWh). Positive numbers indicate profit, negative numbers indicate loss. Some models’ revenue may vary within a certain range due to differences in assumed hash-rate values and machine power parameters.

Using hash price of $33.30/PH/day and a market price of about $75,773.2 as the baseline, the most energy-efficient S21 XP (13.5 J/TH) can generate daily net profit of about $6.49 at an ultra-low electricity price of $0.04/kWh. Even in a high electricity-price environment of $0.10/kWh, this model can still maintain daily net profit of about $1.42 per unit. By contrast, the Avalon A15 basic model with about 18.8 J/TH efficiency turns unprofitable once the electricity price exceeds $0.06/kWh; at $0.08/kWh, its daily loss is more than $2.

As a liquid-cooled flagship model, the S23 Hydro 3U, with an excellent efficiency ratio of 9.5 J/TH, can still reach approximately $20.34 in daily net profit per unit even when electricity prices rise as high as $0.10/kWh. However, its high power consumption of 11,020 W means this model is better suited for professional mining operations that have large data center infrastructure.

Industry analysis indicates that for efficient mining farms with electricity prices below $0.05/kWh, mining cash costs can be kept within the range of $34,000—$43,000 per BTC, and gross margins can still reach 37% to 57%. But this profit level is calculated before depreciation and full-cost accounting.

Industry Impact Analysis: From Hash Rate Scale to Capital Efficiency

Structural Implications of Hash Rate Exits

After the Bitcoin network’s total hash rate reached a peak of about 1,160 EH/s in October 2025, the first quarter of 2026 recorded the first quarterly decline in six years. According to YCharts data, as of May 15, 2026, the network’s total hash rate was about 964 EH/s. Along with hash rate exits came multiple rounds of difficulty downward adjustments—since 2026, there have already been several difficulty reductions, with the largest being a 7.76% single reduction in March, the largest in a year. On May 1, difficulty was lowered again by 2.3% to 132.47T.

This hash rate exit is not a sign of network pathology; rather, it is a natural market-clearing process in a low-profit environment. It is estimated that about 60%—70% of the total hash power is operating “underwater.” Once these devices exit, difficulty reductions will automatically improve the marginal profit margins for remaining miners.

Narrative Shift by Miners: From Mining to AI Infrastructure

The narrative focus in the mining capital markets is undergoing a significant shift. Several listed mining companies have released cumulative AI and HPC contract amounts exceeding $70 billion. Riot Platforms sold 3,778 BTC in the first quarter of 2026 to cover operating costs. CoinShares predicts that by the end of 2026, the portion of revenue for listed mining companies coming from AI/HPC could be as high as 70%.

From the perspective of industry structural evolution, mining is undergoing a transformation toward “infrastructureization.” The core assets of mining sites—electricity capacity, data center facilities, and cooling systems—are shifting from “dedicated assets” serving only a single mining business to “general-purpose assets” that can be used for multiple types of high-performance computing workloads. However, there are fundamental differences in operating models between AI data center business and mining business; the actual effectiveness of this transformation still needs to be validated.

Hot Takes Need Verification

“One year after the halving is the real test; 2026 is the year of life and death”

Judging from the data, this narrative has a relatively strong factual basis. The halving occurred in April 2024, and the deterioration of mining profitability did indeed intensify significantly from late 2025 to early 2026. Bitcoin’s price fell by more than 31% from about $126,000, combined with reduced block rewards and hash rate operating at high levels; the triple-compression effect became concentrated around 18 to 24 months after the halving. In early 2026, hash price fell to the $28—$30/PH/day range, far below the safety threshold required for sustainable operations in the industry. This narrative can be seen as a reasonable description of the delayed effects of the halving on mining.

“AI transformation can fully offset mining losses; the industry has no risk”

The empirical basis for this view is still incomplete. Although the AI/HPC contract amounts announced by many mining companies are sizable (cumulatively exceeding $70 billion), the proportion that actually converts into stable cash flows remains to be verified. The operating models of AI data center business differ fundamentally from mining: mining can tolerate power interruptions more, whereas AI inference services have much higher requirements for latency and stability. In addition, the initial capital expenditures for AI data centers are significantly higher than for purchasing mining rigs, and the business faces direct competition from large cloud service providers. Treating AI transformation as a “full hedge” rather than a “limited buffer” is a narrative that the market has oversimplified.

Conclusion

Two years have passed since the 2024 halving, and the Bitcoin mining industry’s profitability landscape has gone through a complete cycle—from expansion to compression to structural adjustment. At the current Bitcoin price of about $75,773.2 and hash price of about $33.30/PH/day, miners’ energy efficiency has upgraded from a “bonus” to a “life-or-death line.” Energy efficiency below 15—16 J/TH is the basic threshold for profitability in 2026.

Among the three major series—S21, M60, and A15—S21 XP, with 13.5 J/TH efficiency, has become the mainstream air-cooled miner that can still maintain positive profitability even at electricity prices as high as $0.10/kWh. But for the vast majority of miners, keeping electricity costs below $0.06/kWh and continuously upgrading to new-generation miners with energy efficiency within 15 J/TH remains the key strategy for surviving this downturn.

The essence of mining has never changed: it is a highly capital-intensive industry with continuously narrowing profit margins, yet it always contains structural opportunities. Every time hash rate clears out, it expands survival space for efficient operators; every technological iteration redraws the winners and losers in the industry. Whether mining is still profitable in 2026 depends on four variables: electricity price, miner energy efficiency, cash-flow management capability, and the judgment of Bitcoin’s long-term value.