#美伊谈判 Positive signals from US-Iran negotiations! Trump says "progress is smooth" as global markets rebound

Trump stated on social media that the US-Iran nuclear talks are "progressing smoothly," warning that failure to negotiate could face "larger-scale strikes than before." Geopolitical risk expectations for the Strait of Hormuz have cooled. On May 25, US stock futures rose across the board, European stock markets collectively strengthened, and international oil prices plunged over 5%. Previously, the US military carried out "self-defense" strikes on Iran, which vowed retaliation; tensions remain, but positive signals from negotiations have temporarily eased risk aversion. This development contrasts with the tense situation a few days ago, and market risk appetite has somewhat rebounded.
Market impact assessment: Positive (geopolitical risk easing, beneficial for risk assets)
Impacted currencies: BTC, ETH, entire market

Market analysis
Sentiment judgment: Fear (Fear Index 34, slightly up from 30 the previous day)
Main driving forces:
ETF outflows suppress short-term prices: BlackRock's iBIT saw a record $1 billion weekly outflow, combined with US bond yields breaking above 5.2%, inflation pressures heating up, institutional risk asset allocation cooling, short-term suppression of BTC in the $75,000-76,000 range
Regulatory tools continue to expand: Nasdaq Bitcoin options approved by the SEC show ongoing regulatory efforts to promote integration of traditional finance and crypto markets, the CLARITY Act advances providing long-term certainty for stablecoins, institutional toolchains becoming more complete
Geopolitical risk expectations ease: positive signals from US-Iran negotiations have cooled market risk aversion, oil prices have fallen back, risk assets gain short-term breathing room

Technical analysis:
BTC stabilizes around $75,000, with Gate.io quoting $75,779, still under pressure from the 100-day moving average. Key support is at the $74,300-75,000 range (recent lows), with a potential test of $73,000; resistance at $76,500-77,000. ETH shows similar weakness, with $2,000-2,050 as a key support zone. The Fear & Greed Index slightly rebounded from 30 to 34, indicating market sentiment has stabilized somewhat but remains in the fear zone. The positive signals from US-Iran negotiations are short-term bullish for risk assets, but ETF outflows and macro pressures remain the main suppressors.
$BTC