The DXY (US Dollar Index) is entering a structural shift, mirroring historical cycles of strong USD weakening whenever the US faces one of three factors:

* Public debt and financial crises
* Major changes in the global financial order
* Aggressive monetary policy (Fed easing)
The DXY has consistently shown deep declines, clearly observable in the cycles of 1971-1973, 1985, and 2008.
Currently, the market is gradually pricing in a scenario where the US is forced to proactively weaken the USD again a scenario that has occurred many times in the past.
With interest rates remaining high, the cost of paying federal debt is rising sharply and becoming an increasingly heavy burden. If the DXY continues to strengthen, global USD liquidity will be further tightened, pushing the cost of borrowing for the US government to unsustainable levels.
US economic growth is slowing down significantly, while the financial system is beginning to show signs of stress, and historical data indicates that the Fed always prioritizes system stability over protecting the USD at an excessively strong level.
A key point after 2022 is the expansion of the BRICS bloc, record increases in central bank gold reserves, the development of CBDCs, and the strong acceleration of bilateral payments in domestic currencies between countries.
The DXY is currently holding firm in the crucial psychological support zone of 99-100, and this will be a key threshold determining the medium-term trend:
If the DXY remains above this zone, there is still a possibility of sideways movement or a technical rebound.
If a convincing breakdown below 99 (weekly candle close), the probability of a major, multi-year downtrend will increase sharply, similar to historical cycles.
Therefore, when confidence wavers as in previous instances, the USD will have to undergo a deep correction to rebalance. And we are standing right on the threshold of such a cycle.