I have been paying close attention to the changes in the RMB exchange rate recently and noticed some meaningful turning points since the second half of last year. The depreciation trend that had continued for three consecutive years seems to be truly changing, and forecasts for the USD-to-RMB exchange rate have now become a hot topic in the market.

Looking back at the past trends helps explain why so many people are optimistic about the RMB right now. Last year’s first half was indeed brutal—offshore RMB once fell below 7.40, setting a new record since the 2015 exchange rate reform. But from the second half of the year onward, the situation reversed: China–U.S. negotiations eased, the U.S. Dollar Index weakened, and the RMB started to slowly rebound. By the end of November, the RMB even appreciated to below 7.08, reaching a new high in nearly one year—this signal is still very clear.

Now, the market generally believes we may be standing at a cyclical turning point. The depreciation cycle of last year seems to be coming to an end, and the RMB has the opportunity to enter a new round of appreciation. Several major international investment banks are bullish: Deutsche Bank forecasts that the USD-to-RMB exchange rate will rise to 7.0, and Morgan Stanley expects it to reach around 7.05 by year-end. Goldman Sachs is even more aggressive—it directly cut its 12-month target from 7.35 to 7.0, believing that the RMB breaking below 7 may happen faster than people expect.

There are indeed many factors that support RMB appreciation. China’s export resilience is still strong, and the trend of foreign investors reallocating into RMB assets has become established. Also, the U.S. dollar’s structural weakness is the broader backdrop. From the perspective of USD-to-RMB exchange rate forecasts, the key drivers are the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle and the continued weakening of the U.S. Dollar Index.

But can you make money by investing in RMB now? I think the answer is yes, but it depends on timing. In the short term, the RMB should remain relatively strong, with a range-bound fluctuation pattern, but the likelihood of a rapid appreciation to below 7.0 is not high. The key is to keep an eye on three variables: the direction of the U.S. Dollar Index, signals from the central bank’s midpoint rate regulation, and the strength of growth-stabilizing policies.

There are essentially a few aspects to consider when judging the RMB’s trend. First is the central bank’s monetary policy: easing and rate cuts naturally create downward pressure on the RMB, but if they are coupled with strong fiscal stimulus that can stabilize the economy, the RMB will still be supported in the long term. Second is economic data—GDP, PMI, CPI, and others—which are all important and directly affect foreign capital inflows. Third is the USD’s own trend and the Fed’s policies, which have the most direct impact. Finally, don’t forget the official stance on exchange rates: the central bank’s midpoint rate quotation model has a clear impact on short-term exchange rates.

If you want to invest in RMB, there are quite a few options right now. You can open a foreign exchange account through a bank, or you can look for a forex broker—many platforms support two-way trading and leverage. Options like Mitrade, XTB, Admirals, Plus500, and IG are all solid choices. In particular, Mitrade supports low leverage and small initial investments, which is more friendly for retail investors. Securities firms and futures exchanges also offer forex products.

Overall, as the central bank enters a loosening cycle, the overall trend in USD-to-RMB exchange rate forecasts should be positive. This cycle could last a long time. Although disruptions from USD price movements and other events may occur in the middle, as long as you grasp the core factors that affect the RMB, you can still improve the probability of profit. The forex market has high transparency, large trading volume, and supports two-way trading, which makes it relatively fair for ordinary investors.