#Polymarket每日热点 Will the US-Iran Nuclear Deal Happen Before June 30? A Deep Dive into the Numbers, the Stakes, and the Odds

The Situation in Brief
As of May 26, 2026, the United States and Iran are closer to a deal than they've been in months but "closer" doesn't mean "done."

President Trump announced on May 23 that the two sides had "largely negotiated" a memorandum of understanding covering:

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz (currently blocked since late February, choking off roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade)
A 60-day ceasefire and deferred nuclear negotiations
Iran disposing of its stockpile of 440+ kg of 60% enriched uranium
Yet by May 25, both sides were publicly playing down expectations. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson stated a deal was "not imminent" and that nuclear issues were not currently on the table. Trump himself said he told negotiators "not to rush into a deal" and could "walk away" unless it's "great and meaningful."

What the Prediction Markets Say
Here's where it gets interesting. Polymarket's crowd-sourced odds paint a nuanced picture:

Market Yes Odds Key Detail
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 (expired/resolved) The deadline has passed with no signed deal
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 ~50% Roughly even odds the market is genuinely split
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 74% Strong belief a deal will eventually happen, just not imminently
US-Iran permanent peace deal by Dec 31 81% Very high confidence in a broader peace framework by year-end
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium by Dec 31 44% The hardest concession remains deeply uncertain
Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by end of May 18% Low confidence in near-term reopening
The gap between the June 30 nuclear deal odds (50%) and the year-end permanent peace odds (81%) tells you everything: markets believe peace will come, but the nuclear question is the bottleneck. The uranium surrender market at 44% well below the peace deal odds confirms that Tehran's willingness to give up its 60% enriched stockpile is the real sticking point.

The Three Deal-Breakers
1. Uranium Enrichment: The Core Impasse
Iran has agreed "in principle" to dispose of its highly enriched uranium, but Iranian officials publicly insist nuclear issues are not currently being negotiated. The 60-day ceasefire framework deliberately defers the nuclear question which means even if a preliminary MOU is signed, the hardest part is postponed.

Trump's position is absolute: "They will never have a nuclear weapon." But Iran's domestic politics make any formal nuclear concession risky for the regime, especially with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly injured and in hiding since the war began.

2. The Strait of Hormuz: Toll or Free Passage?
This is the detail that could derail everything. Iran has repeatedly insisted on the right to charge transit fees on ships passing through the Strait a position the US finds unacceptable. Under the emerging framework, the Strait would open for 60 days with no tolls, and Iran would clear mines it placed. But what happens after those 60 days? If Iran re-imposes tolls or threatens to close the strait again, the deal collapses.

S&P Global Energy's president noted that investors are "afraid to take a position" because of "so much mixed messaging" about whether transit fees will be permanently banned or quietly tolerated.

3. Sanctions Relief: Iran's Full Price List
Iran's stated demands go well beyond ending the naval blockade:

End the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
Release billions in frozen Iranian assets
Withdraw US forces from Iran's vicinity
Freedom to sell Iranian oil
Complete lifting of OFAC sanctions
These are maximalist positions. The US has indicated sanctions relief would come only after Iran surrenders its enriched uranium creating a chicken-and-egg problem where neither side wants to move first.

What the Oil Market Is Telling Us
Brent crude remains volatile, ticking higher on Tuesday as the transit fee question unsettled traders. WTI moved in the opposite direction. Veteran oil strategist Jeff Currie warned that Asian markets are nearing "minimum operating levels" and that Europe and the US face potential shortages by July if the Strait doesn't reopen soon.

This is the clock ticking beneath the negotiations: every week of delayed reopening tightens the global supply squeeze and increases the economic pressure on both sides to settle but also increases Iran's leverage.

My Assessment
The June 30 nuclear deal market at 50% is fair. Here's why:

Upside catalysts (→ Yes):

Both sides have incentive to end the war the economic cost is mounting for everyone
The 60-day ceasefire framework provides a procedural path that doesn't require immediate nuclear concessions
Trump wants a win to showcase; Iran needs economic relief
Downside catalysts (→ No):

Iran hasn't formally committed to giving up enriched uranium only "in principle"
The transit fee dispute remains unresolved and could be a deal-breaker
US defensive strikes on Iran continued on May 26 even as negotiations proceed a dangerous dual-track
Iran's leadership is fractured; Mojtaba Khamenei's injury and isolation make final decisions uncertain
Israel and US GOP senators are pressuring Trump against a "bad deal," constraining his flexibility
The bottom line: A signed MOU and ceasefire extension by June 30 is plausible (the "agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7" market sits at 60%, and by June 30 at 81%). But a full nuclear deal meaning Iran formally commits to surrendering its enriched uranium and accepting enrichment caps with inspections before June 30 is a coin flip at best. The most likely scenario is a phased agreement: ceasefire + Strait reopening first, nuclear terms negotiated during the 60-day window, with a final nuclear deal landing sometime in late 2026 if both sides survive the interim without escalation.

Where to Watch Next
Week of June 7: The ceasefire extension market at 60% watch for a formal MOU announcement
Strait of Hormuz transit data: If ship traffic begins recovering, the deal is progressing; if not, it's stalled
Iran's formal position on uranium: Any shift from "in principle" to a written commitment would move the June 30 market sharply upward.