#Polymarket每日热点

My baseline scenario: There will be no deal by the end of May, but negotiations are clearly moving toward a broader summer timeframe.

The key reason is timing. While President Trump has recently said talks are "going well" and many reports suggest the U.S. is softening its stance on uranium processing, the biggest issues remain unresolved:

* Whether Iran can continue enriching uranium,
* how enriched stockpiles will be destroyed,
* the order in which sanctions are lifted,
* and regional security guarantees related to the Strait of Hormuz.

Market forecasts point to the same thing:

* The probability of a deal by May 31 is only around 20%.

* The probability of a longer-term deal before 2027 is much higher at around 75%, indicating that investors expect final progress, even if not immediately.

* The likelihood of Iran agreeing to completely end enrichment by May 31 remains very low.

However, bullish investors still have a valid argument:

* Trump appears motivated to achieve a diplomatic victory before tensions escalate further.

* Reports indicate that negotiations are already underway on a provisional memorandum of understanding or a phased framework.

* Reopening the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes would immediately reduce geopolitical pressure and energy market risk premiums.

My investment approach:

* Short-term: "No by May 31st" is still preferred because time is very tight.

* Medium-term: If negotiations continue and rhetoric remains constructive, any sharp decline in longer-term "yes" contracts could become attractive.

Event card:

Polymarket – US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31st?

The market may be pricing in a "headline deal" while overpricing the possibility of a final comprehensive agreement. A symbolic framework announcement is still possible, but the likelihood of a fully confirmed nuclear deal before the end of the month seems low.