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Polymarket launches new market: “When will Powell step down as Chair of the Federal Reserve?” The probability is temporarily reported at 20% from June 6 to June 12.
The event contract rules are: The market will settle based on the specified date range when Powell steps down as Federal Reserve Chair.
"Resignation" refers to Powell no longer holding the position of Federal Reserve Chair in fact.
Announcements of Powell's resignation or dismissal do not alone meet the criteria.
The scheduled end of Powell's term does not alone meet the criteria.
If Powell continues to serve as acting Chair (e.g., until a successor is confirmed), he will not be considered to have relinquished the Chair.
This market is limited to Powell's tenure as Federal Reserve Chair.
Powell's status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board does not affect the settlement of this market.
All dates are based on Eastern Time in the United States.
Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing. (Source: ODAILY)