From 21:30 to 23:30 tonight, BTC followed a typical “high open and low close” pattern. Around the open of the U.S. stock market, the market first borrowed risk sentiment to rebound and surged; BTC quickly rose to around 78077. However, there was clearly noticeable sell pressure above the 78000 level, and afterward, the lack of follow-through buying caused the price to rapidly drop back to around 76500.

This pullback is not only due to technical pressure, but also compounded by disruptions from international developments. The Israel Defense Forces’ operations in southern Lebanon have escalated, tensions between Hezbollah and Israel are intensifying, and strain over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains. As geopolitical risk sentiment rises again, investors’ safe-haven sentiment also returns. Once geopolitical risks heat up, volatility in crude oil, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasuries will all be amplified—so in this kind of high-risk asset environment, cryptocurrencies are naturally more likely to be suppressed.

From the chart, multiple attempts to break above 78000 failed to hold, indicating that there isn’t enough short-term chasing demand. The MACD weakened from its high level, the KDJ surged then fell back, and the RSI cooled down quickly—all coordinated signals of technical weakness. Overall, tonight’s move fits the combination of “a surge driven by news, geopolitical risk suppressing prices, and profit-taking at high levels.” Next, focus on the 76500–76000 support area. If it cannot stabilize, there remains the risk of further pullbacks in the short term. #美军打击伊朗 $BTC $ETH