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Polymarket introduces a new market: “When will Powell step down as the Federal Reserve Chair?” The probability is currently temporarily reported at 20% from June 6 to 12.
The event contract rules are: this market will settle based on the specified date range for Powell’s resignation as Federal Reserve Chair.
"Resignation" refers to Powell actually no longer holding the position of Federal Reserve Chair.
Announcements of Powell’s resignation or dismissal do not alone meet the criteria.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term does not alone meet the criteria.
If Powell continues to serve as acting Chair (e.g., until a successor is confirmed), he will not be considered to have abdicated the Chair.
This market is limited to Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve Chair.
Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board does not affect the market’s settlement.
All dates are based on Eastern Time in the United States.
Odaily Seer’s prophecy channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing.
(Source: ODAILY)