Global stock markets are all rising, only the A-shares are like a dog. Who did it? And who to blame? The "leader" behind this sell-off you would never expect—Turkey, India, Egypt, Pakistan, Thailand, the Philippines... a bunch of poor relatives on the brink of collapse!

What’s going on? U.S. Treasury yields are soaring: the 10-year hitting 4.63%, the 30-year at 5.16%, reaching new highs for the year. Global funds are turning around and rushing to the U.S., leaving these poor countries stunned—they are all big holders of dollar-denominated debt, their local currencies are as fragile as potato chips, and they heavily rely on imported oil. Oil prices skyrocket (Russia-Ukraine + Middle East), inflation explodes: Turkey’s inflation hits 32%, interest rates at 37%, saving 100 bucks yields 137 bucks, but the lira depreciates by a third in a year, no different from worthless paper.
Foreign capital leaves, local currencies collapse, imported oil becomes more expensive, inflation skyrockets, people hit the streets... a death spiral. How to save themselves? Sell U.S. bonds, exchange for dollars, and tough it out with the exchange rate!
Turkey is the most daring: first dumping 120 tons of gold, causing gold prices to plummet so much even their own mother wouldn’t recognize it; then wildly selling $22 billion in U.S. bonds. India isn’t being honest either, having cut at least $6.7 billion. These folks aren’t "dumping" bonds to crash the market—they’re cutting losses to survive.
Does the Federal Reserve care? Powell thinks: who cares! They’re playing "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction," and the bond market is no longer their concern; money is flowing into stocks. So a surreal scene unfolds: U.S. Treasury yields soar, yet the U.S. stock market still manages to hold up. The same with A-shares—morning they fall with Korea, afternoon they recover thanks to semiconductors (like Changxin Technology, which posted a quarterly profit of 24.7 billion).
But don’t celebrate too early—if U.S. Treasury yields spike above 5.5%, the stock market will have to kneel.
Where’s the turning point? Focus on two things: Putin’s visit to China—can it help cool down the Middle East and pressure oil prices? And A-shares themselves—can they produce more "money-printing" companies?
The world is just a domino chain. The first domino to fall this time wasn’t the Wolf of Wall Street, but a few poor friends cornered by high oil prices and a strong dollar. They save themselves but end up flipping the global markets upside down. Do you think the U.S. will step in to rescue?