Wintermute: The key support level for Bitcoin is in the $75,000-$76k range, and the market structure has not fully deteriorated.

BlockBeats News, May 26 — Wintermute issued a statement saying that the macro environment improved significantly last week, with Brent crude oil plunging 9% due to easing tensions with Iran, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling back to 4.50%, and U.S. stocks rising for the eighth consecutive week to hit a new all-time high, easing inflationary pressures driven by energy. However, consumer concerns have not abated, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to a historic low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the May manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high, with input costs rising to the highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence in goods inflation. The Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes also signaled that “if inflation remains stubborn, further tightening may be necessary,” and markets have not fully priced in this hawkish expectation.

On the tech stocks front, Nvidia delivered an “explosive” earnings report: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, with data center business growing 92%, and announced an $80 billion buyback and a 25-fold dividend increase. More importantly, its Q2 guidance implicitly assumes zero revenue from Chinese data centers, implying stronger actual AI demand. However, the market reacted unusually coldly, with stock prices barely moving after hours, reflecting that AI trading has entered a “perfectly priced” stage, where simply exceeding expectations can no longer sustain the rally. This is an important warning for risk assets, including the crypto market — if AI momentum weakens, sluggish consumer spending, sticky inflation, and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve could reassert market dominance.

Compared to the strong U.S. stock market, the crypto market is noticeably lagging. BTC hovers around $76k, ETH drops to $2,140, neither following risk assets higher. Over the past two weeks, BTC spot ETFs have seen over $2 billion in outflows, indicating a clear cooling of institutional funds, with marginal risk appetite shifting back to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, hitting a 10-month low, while a few contrarian assets like HYPE are showing strength, with daily ETF inflows reaching a record $25.5 million and signs of large institutional wallets continuously accumulating. The current market structure has not fully turned bearish; long-term holders are still increasing their positions, and exchange reserves remain low, but short-term capital flows that determine prices are turning negative. BTC’s key support levels are currently at $75k to $76k; if broken, the market could quickly retest the $70k to $72k zone. If held, there’s still a chance to challenge $80k again.