Recently, discussions about stablecoins are heating up again. To put it plainly, what everyone fears isn’t that “the technology breaks”—it’s the psychological moment during a bank run: you think you can exchange little by little, but in the end, others bolt first. The issue of reserve transparency is also awkward—there are all sorts of reports, but when the situation turns tense, the market only cares whether you can redeem immediately and whether the redemption channels are smooth; everything else becomes a matter of “whether people believe it or not.” The kind of collapse you see in chain games—where inflation plus studio “farming” output crushes the economy—is basically the same setup: once expectations fall apart, the coin price spirals. Anyway, I’d rather think about outcomes in probabilistic terms now: a low-probability event doesn’t mean it won’t happen—it just means that when it does, it’s hard to make a dignified exit. So, first make sure your positions and routes are kept in good shape.