If the AI bubble really bursts, sovereign credit risk will rise, and whether Bitcoin can catch fire again depends on where the liquidity flows.

This month's market fluctuated under the dual shocks of inflation and interest rate hike expectations, with technology benefiting from short-term liquidity concentration. The US fiscal and monetary issues are difficult to resolve with a single policy; before AI matures, many countries worldwide may face fiscal crises. Crypto assets are temporarily suppressed by the 200-day moving average. Looking ahead with three points: Wash risk, supply chain recovery and resource shortages, and fiscal crises triggered by insufficient AI benefits in countries like the UK and Japan. If the AI bubble bursts and triggers sovereign credit risk, Bitcoin could become the ignition switch.