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The US and Iran will not reach a definitive nuclear agreement by the end of May 2026; because the current draft on the table is not a permanent nuclear deal, but only a 60-day temporary ceasefire and dialogue framework agreement. Significant progress has been made in negotiations following the war that broke out between the two countries in February 2026, and although US President Donald Trump has stated that the process is "progressing positively," the parties have postponed the most critical nuclear issues, such as uranium enrichment, to a later date. Moreover, both the Iranian Foreign Ministry and US officials emphasize that a final agreement is not yet "a matter of the hour."

In summary, it is quite likely that a temporary military/economic de-escalation agreement will be signed by the end of May to open the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities, but the completion of a comprehensive and permanent nuclear deal will take months.