miss_1903

#EthereumReclaims$2450 #ShareWeekly
Market assessment: ETH, ZEC, Tesla, and semiconductors
There are signs of a short-term recovery in the crypto market. However, whether ETH can sustain its position above $2,450 depends not only on its daily percentage gain but also on trading volume, resistance levels, and overall risk appetite.
Ethereum (ETH)
$2,450.83
+2.46% · 24 hours
Zcash (ZEC)
+8.5%
24-hour change
Critical scenarios for ETH
* Bullish scenario: If ETH holds above $2,450 and confirms this level as support—backed by increasing volume—it may move toward the next resistance zone.
* Uncertain scenario: If the price fluctuates around $2,450, the breakout may not yet be confirmed.
* Pullback scenario: If ETH falls back below $2,450 and fails to reclaim this level, its short-term upward momentum could weaken.
Key point: Surpassing $2,450 does not, by itself, confirm a new uptrend. Determining the next resistance level requires an analysis of the current chart, trading volume, and price peaks formed in the recent past. Ethereum (ETH)
$2,449.43
+$60.15 (2.52%)
Market Cap | Daily Low: 2,377.24
Annual Low: 1,512.07 | EPS (Trailing twelve months)
Daily High: 2,471.1 | Annual High: 4,246.23
According to current technical analysis sources, the first key resistance level for ETH is around $2,470, with the next resistance at $2,533. The immediate support zone is near $2,413. These levels may vary depending on the indicators and timeframes used.
Other market developments
1. Tesla — earnings expectations
Tesla will announce its third-quarter financial results after the market closes on October 21, 2026. The company’s delivery figure of 486,532 vehicles is already known; the primary question is whether profitability and operating margins will meet expectations. Investors will also be watching for updates regarding artificial intelligence, robotaxis, and capital expenditures.
2. SK Hynix — semiconductor rally
Shares of SK Hynix and Samsung have stood out in the recovery of the South Korean market. While demand for memory chips to support AI infrastructure remains a tailwind, factors such as high valuations, competition from Chinese manufacturers, and concerns regarding global technology spending could make it difficult for the rally to continue.
3. ZEC — strong daily gain
An 8.5% increase may signal short-term buying interest. However, a single day’s movement does not prove a lasting improvement in the overall sentiment of the crypto market. It is important to see an increase in trading volume and for the gains to be sustained in subsequent sessions.
4. U.S.–Iran diplomacy and oil
If news of mediation strengthens expectations that tensions will ease, it could exert downward pressure on oil prices. Conversely, supply risks could provide support for oil. The direction of oil prices may also influence risky assets through its impact on inflation and interest rate expectations.
5. Cboe — extended options trading hours
As of October 19, Cboe has introduced extended trading sessions for certain stock and ETF options: from 7:30 a.m. to 9:25 a.m. and from 4:00 p.m. to 4:15 p.m. (Eastern Time). This expands the opportunity to trade specific options following news events, such as earnings releases; however, liquidity and bid-ask spreads during these extended hours should be carefully considered.
Overall conclusion: What should be monitored in the market?
ETH: A potential breakout above the $2,470 resistance level.
ZEC: Whether daily gains can be sustained, alongside trading volume.
Tesla: Profit margins, cash flow, and earnings expectations.
SK Hynix: Demand for AI-related memory and the broader outlook for the sector.
Oil: Developments between the U.S. and Iran, and potential supply risks.
My assessment: The short-term outlook for ETH depends on whether it can overcome the resistance near $2,470. Sustaining a position above this level could strengthen a bullish scenario, while a rejection might shift focus toward the $2,413 support level. Tesla’s earnings results and global risk appetite may also influence the direction of market movements. These are conditional scenarios; they do not constitute definitive price forecasts or investment advice.
$ETH ‌
$ZEC ‌
$SKHYNIX ‌$SAMSUNG ‌$XTIUSD ‌

🎁 Gate Square Report Treasure Hunt | Day 2/3
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Yesterday, we counted users; today, let’s see how long the trading “menu” is 🔎
According to the September transparency report:
How many stocks and ETFs does Gate support? More than ______
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🛡️ 118.49%, Gate responds to every show of trust with data
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🔥 What are we discussing today? Gate Square's trending topics have been updated!
🔹 Tesla's Q3 earnings report will be released after market close. Can deliveries and margins surprise the market?
🔹 SpaceX's Q3 earnings report is also worth watching. How will revenue and Starlink user growth fare?
🔹 Strive's holdings have increased to 36,818 $BTC . Will continued accumulation further strengthen market expectations?
Additionally, Gate's September transparency report and Unitree Robotics' 18% surge are also worth watching.
Quality content can receive traffic support + featured recommendations.
💰 Have a take? Come discuss:
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#KOSPIFalls3.17%AtOpen
#日韩股集体大跌 $SKHY $SAMSUNG $SNDK
Today is “-3.17% at the open.” The more useful story is what happened after the open.
1. The open vs the first hour
KOSPI opened at 5,488.41, down 179.64 points from Friday’s 5,668.05. Before the bell, indications had Samsung about 5.8% lower and SK hynix 6.8% lower. By mid-morning Samsung was down roughly 1% and SK hynix 2% to 3%. The index briefly turned positive, touching about 5,705 (+0.66%), before fading back. That’s a swing of about 3.9% from the open (my math). The panic gap got bought. Foreign investors reportedly flipped to net buyers early, then went back to net selling.
2. Where it came from
Friday’s US session: Nasdaq -2.15%, S&P 500 -1.09%. Micron fell 5.63%, Broadcom 4.52%, SK hynix’s US receipts 6.58% and AMD 5.95%. One report calls it the worst week for the S&P and Nasdaq in nearly four months. The stated triggers were doubts about the profitability of AI spending, worries about debt-financed AI buildouts, and expectations of faster rate hikes.
3. The October scoreboard and drawdown math
Reportedly, Samsung fell 19.7% and SK hynix 28.4% between October 1 and Friday, making the KOSPI the worst major index this month. Drawdowns are asymmetric: SK hynix needs about +40% to get back to its October 1 level, and Samsung about +25% (my math). Foreign investors also sold more than 11 trillion won of Korean shares last week.
4. Chart check (levels from my screenshots)
Samsung at 215,500: support at 211,236 (-2.0%), 14-day at 251,500 (+16.7%), 35-day at 257,729 (+19.6%). RSI is 31, down from 33 on Friday.
SK hynix (US receipts) at 136.4: sitting on support at 136.0. The 145.57 support I flagged on Friday failed, and price is now about 6% below it. RSI is 27.6.
Micron at 878.67: support at 876.03, and the 916 level failed too. RSI is 34.
SanDisk at 1,298.8: support at 1,294.9. RSI is 29.7.
An RSI under 30 means stretched, not reversed. The repeated support failures are what I’d respect more.
5. What could push KOSPI lower, and what could steady it
Lower: continued foreign selling, the AI-debt worries and rate-hike expectations. One analyst warns the index could break below 5,000 in a worst case, about 9% under the open (my math), while another projects a 5,200–5,900 range. Steadier: Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 1% on Monday morning, and Samsung is holding up better than SK hynix. Big Tech earnings this week, including Meta and Tesla, are the next catalysts.
6. Levels on the index
The open at 5,488 undercut Thursday’s 5,554 close, and buyers took it back within an hour. To call it stabilization, I need a close back above Friday’s 5,668.
My take: a gap that gets bought is better than one that sells into the close, but it isn’t a trend change yet. The driver is US AI funding fear, not Korea-specific news, so I’m watching US futures, foreign flows and earnings more than the KOSPI chart. I’m not calling a bottom.
Not financial advice.
Do you read the intraday recovery as real dip-buying or just a bounce inside a downtrend? And what would make you trust it: a close above 5,668 or foreign buying?

#TeslaRoadsterSparksMemeCoinSurge
Could the buzz surrounding the Tesla Roadster sustain the upward momentum of $FTR?
The key distinction here is that a viral narrative can often outlive the price surge it initially triggers. While the unveiling of a futuristic Roadster—complete with SpaceX-inspired thrusters—might draw attention to related crypto tokens, securing lasting gains requires much more than just social media momentum.
For $FTR, the critical question is: will new buyers continue to enter the market once the initial excitement fades, or will early investors seize the opportunity to sell off their holdings?
What could happen next?
1. A continued uptrend
Content related to the Roadster continues to spread, trading volume remains high, liquidity deepens, and the token attracts new investors. This could extend the rally, though it offers no guarantee of further gains.
2. A volatile, sideways market
Social engagement remains high, but new buying activity slows down. Price fluctuations become more intense as investors scramble to anticipate the next viral post.
3. A sharp reversal
Interest shifts elsewhere, early investors take profits, or liquidity dries up. A token that rises based on a narrative rather than fundamental data can experience a steep decline—even if the original story remains popular.
What do the latest developments tell us?
Recent news confirms that the Roadster reveal has indeed sparked activity in the associated tokens. However, the connection to $FTR appears to be based more on a "meme" (internet joke/culture) narrative than on an official business relationship. The token’s own website explicitly states that it has no affiliation with Tesla, SpaceX, or Elon Musk.
This distinction is significant: while the engineering story behind Tesla may hold lasting importance, the value of $FTR remains largely driven by speculation.
Five signals to watch
Trading volume Trading volume remaining high over several days
Liquidity Sufficient liquidity to absorb selling pressure without causing a sharp collapse in price
Number of investors An increase in genuine new investors, rather than just trading activity between existing wallets
Price structure Price stabilizing at certain levels during pullbacks, rather than
consistently breaking through support levels
Social interest Continued engagement even after the initial buzz surrounding the launch has faded
Exercise extra caution in scenarios where the price rises while liquidity is falling, or where a large portion of the total supply is concentrated in just a few wallets.
What about $TSLA and $SPCX?
* $TSLA: Tesla stock is backed by actual business operations; the Roadster model is merely one component, alongside factors such as vehicle deliveries, profitability, autonomous driving technologies, and future growth potential.
* $SPCX: First, verify the asset in question. A token or derivative product using the ticker "SPCX" does not necessarily represent shares in or ownership rights to the company SpaceX.
* $FTR: Do not view this as a way to invest in Tesla or SpaceX; rather, consider it a speculative "meme coin" (a crypto asset driven by pop culture). Tokens with similar names or contract addresses may cause confusion.
In summary
Based on my assessment, the momentum behind $FTR could persist as long as there is continued interest, liquidity, and an influx of new buyers; however, you must also account for the possibility of a sudden reversal. There is insufficient evidence to suggest that the current rally is sustainable; it would be unwise to base long-term projections on short-term percentage gains.
A final note: Tesla has announced a production target for 2028; therefore, the demonstration that has gone viral on social media is not proof that the vehicle is ready for mass production.
If you are considering $FTR as a trading opportunity, the most logical approach is to examine the current price, market capitalization, liquidity, and 24-hour trading volume as a whole, rather than focusing solely on the price.
$TSLA ‌$SPCX ‌

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‍$BTC $ETH $HYPE

‍#韩林博士受邀牛津大学辩论社演讲
This event marks a significant milestone in integrating cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance systems into mainstream academic and historical discourse.
Event Details
* Speaker: Dr. Lin Han (Founder and CEO of Gate)
* Date and Time: Thursday, November 12, 2026, 15:30 GMT
* Venue: The Oxford Union Society, St Michael's Street, Oxford, United Kingdom
* Milestone: The first founder/CEO of a leading cryptocurrency trading platform to speak at the Oxford Union.
Key Topics and Focus Areas
1. The Future of Money and Global Value Transfer: How blockchain technology and digital assets are reshaping cross-border financial architecture.
2. The Gate Money Ecosystem: Insights into Gate's ecosystem solutions and their role in facilitating seamless global asset transfers.
3. Crypto Integration and Regulation: The intersection of decentralized finance, institutional adoption, and future financial stability.
My questions for Dr. Han Lin at the Oxford Union:
1. How can Gate Money make cryptocurrency reliable, accessible, and a practical part of daily life for people around the world, while ensuring transparency, security, and financial freedom?
2. The Decentralization Balance vs. Web3 Usability
The Oxford Union has a history of debating the balance of power. As crypto exchanges like Gate grow to serve millions globally, how do you reconcile maintaining a centralized user-friendly bridge with the ultimate ethos of decentralization and user self-sovereignty?
3. The Future of Global Financial Inclusion
Traditional global money transfers remain slow and expensive for billions in developing economies. Beyond trading and speculation, what concrete steps is Gate taking to ensure digital assets genuinely lower barriers for the unbanked world?
4. Regulatory Evolution & Mainstream Adoption
Many institutional investors and regulators still view digital assets with skepticism. How can platforms like Gate champion clearer global standards without sacrificing the core permissionless innovation that makes crypto unique?
Participation and Access Guidelines
* Admission Policy: Registration or RSVP serves the purpose of calendar reminders and logistical planning; however, entry to the hall will be strictly on a "first-come, first-served" basis.
* Requirements: Attendees must present their Oxford Union membership cards, if applicable. Due to limited seating capacity, early arrival at the venue is strongly recommended.
Here’s my take:
Gate’s appearance at the Oxford Union is a significant branding opportunity. Discussing crypto, the future of money, and Gate Money on a stage associated with influential thinkers could help connect digital assets with mainstream financial discussions. The real impact, however, will depend on the substance of the speech and whether it leads to greater trust, adoption, and practical use.
I believe that the future of money is not just about faster transactions; what truly matters is building trust and facilitating global value transfer for everyone. I look forward to hearing Dr. Han Lin’s vision!
$GT

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‍#GateSquare #Gate广场 #GT #Web3 #Crypto

‍#Ledger事件损失近9000万
1. The $90M Ledger Supply Chain Compromise: How Much Security Work Remains?
The reported losses serve as a major wake-up call for the entire crypto industry. On October 9, 2026, a blockchain analytics firm estimated that approximately $92.9 million had been drained from 311 wallets associated with purchased Ledger devices. This figure is an estimate for research purposes, not a final, independently verified total loss.
The recent $90M+ exploit involving tampered Ledger hardware wallets—linked to third-party reseller distribution and hardware implants—highlights a fundamental shift in crypto threat vectors. As on-chain smart contracts and cryptographic signing standards have matured, attackers are increasingly targeting physical distribution pipelines, supply chains, and client-side dependencies rather than attempting to crack open core cryptography.
Where crypto security still falls short:
* Physical Supply-Chain Integrity: Hardware wallets are sold through complex global reseller networks. Guaranteeing cryptographic "Genuine Checks" on devices that pass through unauthorized or compromised intermediate vendors remains an unsolved physical attack surface.
* Blind Signing & Verification Gaps: Users frequently approve transactions without full visibility into exact parameters on-screen, exposing them to phishing and malicious payload injections.
* Over-Reliance on Single-Point Self-Custody: Multi-signature setups (Multi-Sig), Account Abstraction and Threshold Signature Schemes are still underutilized by average retail users, leaving seed phrase extraction or single device compromises catastrophic.
This incident represents one of the most critical security events in the hardware wallet space. While Ledger’s core infrastructure remains uncompromised, the scale of the drain (~$90–$93M across 300+ wallets) exposes severe structural risks in physical supply chains and distribution networks.
Areas where the industry still needs to strengthen defenses:
Supply chain verification: Tamper-evident packaging, device authentication, and more rigorous reseller vetting.
Safer wallet setup: Clear warnings and verification steps before users transfer significant funds.
Transaction protection: Multi-signature wallets, spending limits, and independent transaction checks for larger assets.
Incident response: Faster coordination among wallet manufacturers, exchanges, blockchain researchers, and stablecoin issuers.
What users should do: Anyone who purchased a Ledger from the vendor mentioned in the reports should follow Ledger's current security guidelines. If the device has already been initialized, it may be necessary to transfer funds to a trusted, verified signer using a newly generated recovery phrase. Never enter your existing recovery phrase into a website or share it with support staff.
The broader lesson is that self-custody requires more than just owning a hardware wallet. Security must encompass the entire process, from production to final processing.
1. Key Analysis of the Incident
* Supply Chain Interception: The evidence—specifically automated drains acting on pre-established private keys across hundreds of wallets—strongly points to pre-tampered devices or intercepted supply chains. Reports indicating custom hardware implants or modified firmware capable of covertly exfiltrating seed phrases bypass traditional software-level checks (like Ledger’s "Genuine Check").
auditing.
3. Actionable Recommendations for Users
If you or anyone in your network purchased a device through localized third-party vendors recently:
1. Immediate Asset Migration: If you activated a device purchased through this distributor within the past 90–120 days, immediately transfer all funds to a safe, trusted location (e.g., a non-custodial software wallet set up on a secure, clean machine, or a separate factory-direct hardware wallet).
2. Do Not Activate Unused Devices: If you received a device from this distributor that has not yet been set up, do not unbox or power it on.
3. Verify Generation of Seed Phrases: Never use pre-printed recovery phrases or cards provided inside packaging. Ensure the device itself generates a completely new seed phrase upon initial setup.
4. Source Directly: Purchase self-custody hardware directly from the manufacturer whenever possible to shorten the supply chain logistics chain.
* Single Point of Failure in Authorized Resellers: Buying from authorized resellers was previously considered equivalent to buying direct. This attack demonstrates that localized third-party distributors can become compromised hubs, whether through internal bad actors or intercepted transit logistics.
* Automated Exploitation: On-chain forensic data shows the attacker conducted multi-chain test runs weeks in advance. Once initialized, automated scripts executed sweeping batch transactions within seconds, proving the attacker held full seed phrase access before users even funded their wallets.
2. Practical Security Assessment
Tampered Hardware Devices Severe (Direct key exposure) Reseller sales halted; users advised to migrate.
Ledger Hardware/Firmware Core Low (No global breach) No direct evidence of core Ledger system breach.
Centralized Secondary Sales High Third-party distribution models require tighter cryptographic
My take: this is a serious warning that hardware-wallet security depends on the entire supply chain, not just the device manufacturer. If the reported losses are linked to tampered devices, the incident exposes a major weakness in the idea that buying a hardware wallet automatically makes your crypto safe.
‍$MU $NVDA $TSLA $SPCX

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🔥 What are we discussing today? Gate Square trending topics have been updated!
🔹$BTC After dipping back to $81,000 and rebounding, the 24h decline narrowed! Was this a normal shakeout, or has the short-term trend started weakening?
🔹 AI concept stocks broadly fell, $ALAB dropped more than 9%, and $NVDA, $AMD, and $ARM all moved lower! Are AI valuations starting to cool?
🔹$ZEC plunged more than 14% in a single day, while Grayscale ZCSH saw weekly net outflows of more than $90 million! Can the privacy sector continue to move forward?
CEX and DEX funding rates collectively turned negative, with shorts starting to pay longs! Has market sentiment reached an extreme?
🔥 Gate Money is now officially live, further connecting digital assets, fiat currencies, stocks, ETFs, gold, bank accounts, and payments.
Post with trending topics; quality content can receive traffic support + featured recommendations, and can also participate in content mining rewards.
💰 With the market divided, it is especially suitable for discussing viewpoints:
https://www.gate.com/post/topic

🔥 What are we talking about today? Gate Square’s trending topics have been updated!
🔹 The Fed’s September minutes were hawkish, and another rate hike this year remains possible! With high-rate expectations returning, how will $BTC and U.S. stocks perform?
🔹 Samsung’s Q3 operating profit surged 782.5%! With AI and memory demand continuing to explode, how much further can the semiconductor cycle go?
🔹 Robinhood will add $25 million in $BTC to its balance sheet! Following publicly listed companies, are brokerage platforms also starting to allocate directly to Bitcoin?
🔹 Hyperliquid’s open interest market share in perpetual contracts rose to a record 11.9%! Are on-chain derivatives taking market share from CEXs?
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#英伟达股价新高 #OneGate见证计划 NVIDIA Hits Another All-Time High: Behind Its $5.76 Trillion Market Cap, Is AI Truly Booming or Just a Bubble?
When computing power becomes the oil of a new era, whoever controls the refineries controls the pricing power.
Three months ago, Wall Street was still collectively “pouring cold water” on NVIDIA. In the summer of 2026, claims that the “AI bubble is about to burst” were everywhere. NVIDIA’s stock price retreated from its May record high, wiping out as much as approximately $1 trillion in market value. “Big Short” investor Michael Burry’s doubts, first raised at the beginning of the year, continued to gain traction, while debate over whether AI capital expenditures could generate returns grew increasingly heated.
And then?
On October 5, U.S. Eastern Time Monday, NVIDIA closed at $238.90, up 2.12% on the day. It broke decisively above its May high during the session, with the closing price reaching a new all-time high. Its total market capitalization reached $5.76 trillion, firmly holding the top spot among publicly listed companies worldwide. It is now only approximately $230 billion away from $6 trillion—the threshold no company in human history has ever reached.
From wiping out $1 trillion to returning to its peak, it took less than one quarter. This is not the first time. Over the past three years, NVIDIA has faced a trial over the “bubble” almost every six months, then responded to the doubts with an earnings report.
But this time, the focus of the debate has changed. People are no longer asking whether “AI is real,” but rather: when a company earns more in one quarter than many countries produce in GDP in an entire year, where exactly is its ceiling?
01 From Wiping Out $1 Trillion to Returning to Its Peak: What Happened Over These Three Months
To understand the significance of this new high, we first need to look back at how dramatic the past few months have been. On May 14 this year, NVIDIA had just set a record closing high of $235.74, with market sentiment still at a boiling point. But once July arrived, the wind suddenly changed.
There were several triggers:
First, “Big Short” investor Michael Burry publicly raised doubts as early as February: NVIDIA’s purchase obligations had surged from $16.1 billion a year earlier to $95.2 billion. This meant NVIDIA had placed a large number of non-cancellable orders before demand had become clear. By summer, this logic was repeatedly cited and continued to gain traction in the market.
Second, earnings reports from major customers such as Amazon and Meta showed that free cash flow had either plunged or stagnated. The market began to worry: could these technology giants actually earn back the hundreds of billions they were spending on GPUs?
Third, monetization on the AI application side had consistently lagged behind capital expenditures on the hardware side, and doubts over “circular financing” grew louder—especially after NVIDIA announced in August that it would establish a computing-power financing platform exceeding $500 billion together with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and other institutions.
Combined with external disruptions such as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, multiple pressures drove NVIDIA’s stock below $190 at one point in late July, a retreat of approximately 20% from its May high and a loss of approximately $1 trillion in market value. At that time, the “AI bubble” thesis was Wall Street’s most politically correct conclusion. The turning point came on August 26. After the market closed that day, NVIDIA released its second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings report—the figures were explosive, and the stock rose approximately 5% after hours at one point. Then came what we are seeing now: the stock steadily recovered its losses, broke above its May high on heavy volume on October 5, and closed at a record $238.90, with its market capitalization climbing above $5.76 trillion. The Nasdaq index also hit an all-time high that day. From “the bubble is about to burst” to a record high, the script reversed faster than many had imagined. Every row of glowing racks is an AI factory processing Tokens.
02 Earning $59.69 Billion in One Quarter: Just How Astonishing Are These Numbers?
Let’s start with a set of figures to get a feel for what an “AI money-printing machine” looks like. NVIDIA’s core figures for the second quarter of fiscal 2027, ended July 26, 2026: total revenue of $96.22 billion, up 106% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter. Net profit of $59.69 billion, up 126% year over year. Gross margin of 75%—what does that mean? Apple’s gross margin is approximately 45%, while TSMC’s is approximately 55%. For a chipmaker to achieve a 75% gross margin means its products are in no danger of going unsold, and it has complete control over pricing.
But what is truly astonishing is the structure of its data-center business. Data-center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter, accounting for more than 90% of total revenue. Its revenue in a single quarter exceeds the annual revenue of many technology companies.
Breaking it down: hyperscale cloud service providers—major customers such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon—contributed $48.7 billion, up 102% year over year. AI cloud, industrial, and enterprise customers contributed $40.3 billion, up 138% year over year. Note the second figure: enterprise and AI cloud customers are growing faster than hyperscalers.
What does this mean? It means demand for AI computing power is expanding from “a handful of technology giants spending heavily to build the foundation” to more industries and more companies. Demand is not narrowing; it is broadening. The core driver of this growth cycle is the ramp-up in shipments of chips based on the Blackwell Ultra architecture. At the same time, the next-generation Vera Rubin platform has entered full-scale mass production and will be deployed by partners including CoreWeave, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle OCI, and Nebius.
Simply put: the old products are still selling, while new products are already coming online.
Even more striking is the guidance: the company expects third-quarter revenue to reach $108 billion (±2%)—putting quarterly revenue above the $100 billion mark for the first time. Jensen Huang said on the earnings call that AI has reached an “inflection point” and that “computing power is being converted into revenue.” At the Goldman Sachs TMT conference in September, he put it even more directly: “The 70% revenue growth target we provided is a supply ceiling, not a demand ceiling.” In other words: it is not that the market does not want more chips; we simply cannot manufacture them fast enough. This is the underlying logic behind the stock’s continued rise—demand exceeds supply.
03 Bubble or Golden Age? Wall Street Is Divided
Every time NVIDIA hits a new high, the debate returns. But this time, the arguments on both sides are sharper than ever.
Let’s first look at the bullish case.
Hou Wey Fook, DBS Group’s chief investment officer, said publicly on October 5 that NVIDIA’s forward price-to-earnings ratio for the next 12 months was only 17x, while the market expected its earnings growth next year to remain at 70%. He compared it with the internet bubble: Cisco’s P/E ratio was approximately 100x before the bubble burst. “If NVIDIA is defined as the representative company in the AI sector and its current P/E ratio is only in the teens, how can this be called a bubble?”
Morgan Stanley maintained its “Overweight” rating on NVIDIA in its latest report on October 5, with a $300 price target, and once again listed it as its top pick in the semiconductor industry. Morgan Stanley also estimated that the 70% growth guidance reflected supply constraints, while actual demand growth was close to doubling.
Jensen Huang’s own statement was even more direct. At the Goldman Sachs TMT conference on September 10, he directly responded to the “circular financing” doubts: “I looked at the financial statements. We put in $1 and get back a $100 return. Is that circular financing? If it is, then we should do more.” He also emphasized that before investing, the company confirms that the recipient has genuine contracts. The total value of such high-confidence contracts he had seen had reached $100 billion. By 2030, the AI infrastructure market will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion.
The concerns on the bearish side are not entirely without merit.
The first concern: the surge in purchase obligations. Michael Burry pointed out that NVIDIA’s purchase obligations had jumped from $16.1 billion a year earlier to $95.2 billion. His logic was that such a large volume of non-cancellable orders showed NVIDIA was betting on demand that had not yet been validated. Notably, the latest earnings report showed that NVIDIA’s long-term supply commitments had expanded further to approximately $279 billion, compared with only $119 billion one quarter earlier, primarily related to memory purchases.
The second concern: major customers’ cash flow. Companies such as Amazon and Meta, which are buying GPUs most aggressively, are all facing pressure on free cash flow. If they cannot earn back the money spent on chips, how long can this demand chain continue?
The third concern: monetization on the AI application side. Billions have been invested in hardware, but how many companies have actually made money from AI applications? Most AI startups are still in the cash-burning phase.
On the surface, this debate is about whether NVIDIA is expensive. In reality, it can be broken down into two deeper questions:
First, is AI infrastructure construction a decade-long cycle or a three-year bubble? Huang’s view is that it is “one of the largest infrastructure build-outs in human history,” measured in decades. Goldman Sachs also characterizes this cycle as an “investment supercycle” rather than a bubble. But history tells us that in every technological revolution, some people ultimately mistake a long-term trend for short-term performance and pay the price.
Second, when one company accounts for such a large share of global technology stocks, who bears the concentration risk? NVIDIA’s market capitalization is larger than that of the entire stock market in many countries. Its weighting in the Nasdaq index is rising.
This means that if something goes wrong at NVIDIA, the entire broader market will be shaken. It is still too early to draw a conclusion. But one thing is certain: this is not a story that can be simply summarized as either a “bubble” or a “golden age.”
04 Why This Is More Than Just a Single Company’s Stock Price Story
Many people view NVIDIA merely as a stock or an investment asset. But if you broaden your perspective, you will find that NVIDIA’s significance goes far beyond that. Huang has recently been repeatedly discussing a concept called the AI factory. He redefines the modern data center as a factory, with GPUs as the production machines and Tokens—the smallest computational units that generate code, generate content, and power AI applications—as the factory’s products. “Every Token is profit,” he said. What does this mean? It means AI has evolved from a concept in the laboratory into an industry that is already making money. Just as electricity entered factories 100 years ago and oil powered the entire industrial system 50 years ago, computing power is becoming the basic energy of a new era. And NVIDIA is the company selling the “refining equipment.” Huang himself has compared NVIDIA’s position in the AI supply chain with that of TSMC. The analogy is accurate: TSMC does not make phones or computers, but all chips must pass through its factories; NVIDIA does not build foundation models or applications, but nearly every AI company builds its business on NVIDIA’s platform. In an industrial chain, the most profitable player is often not the end brand, but the link that controls the core bottleneck. That is why NVIDIA can achieve a 75% gross margin—it has the entire AI industry by the throat. For ordinary people, the significance is that AI is no longer an abstract concept floating in the sky. It is becoming infrastructure like water, electricity, and oil, penetrating every industry. You may not buy NVIDIA stock, but every AI tool you use, every automated process you encounter at work, and every piece of AI-generated content you see is supported by computing costs. And behind those computing costs stands NVIDIA. That is why its stock price is not merely a Wall Street matter—it is a barometer of the entire AI industry’s health.
05 What Really Deserves Attention Next
It is too early to declare that the “AI bubble has burst” or that “NVIDIA will rise forever.” The following key milestones will be the variables that truly determine the direction:
First, the guidance in the next earnings report. In late November, NVIDIA will release its third-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings report. The market is watching not only how much the company earns in the quarter, but also whether its guidance can be delivered. The company has already forecast Q3 revenue of $108 billion. If management continues to raise expectations, it would show that demand is indeed strong; if it begins to take a more conservative stance, caution will be warranted.
Second, the pace of capital expenditures by major customers. NVIDIA expects capital expenditures by the five largest cloud providers to rise from approximately $800 billion this year to $1.3 trillion next year. Whether customers such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta change their capital expenditure plans will directly determine NVIDIA’s order visibility.
Third, the production ramp-up of Vera Rubin. The next-generation platform has just entered full-scale mass production. Whether the ramp-up proceeds smoothly, how yields perform, and how quickly customers deploy the platform will determine the 2027 growth curve. Fourth, the $6 trillion threshold. It is now only approximately $230 billion away from $6 trillion. Whether it breaks through, and when, will become a landmark psychological milestone. No company in history has ever reached this level.
Fifth, the variable of the Chinese market. Export controls have always been a sword hanging over NVIDIA. The latest earnings report showed that shipments of data-center products to China accounted for less than 1%. The impact appears limited, but any policy change could cause short-term volatility.
Any inflection point in any one of these variables could alter the market consensus that currently prevails.
Every time NVIDIA hits a new high, it is accompanied by a debate over how “this time is different.” Some say it is the oil giant of a new era; others say it is the next Cisco—the king of the internet bubble era. After the bubble burst, Cisco’s stock price fell nearly 90%, and it then took a full 26 years, until 2026, to return to its 2000 high. History does not simply repeat itself, but it always rhymes.
Is NVIDIA today standing at the beginning of a decade-long supercycle, or on the eve of a bubble bursting? No one can provide a definitive answer. But at least one thing is clear: AI is no longer a question of whether to “believe in it,” but an industrial trend that is already redistributing wealth on a trillion-dollar scale. As for whether NVIDIA can remain at the top of the pyramid, time will provide the answer. $NVDA ‌

#NvidiaHitsRecordHigh $NVDA
#每周来晒 ‍#布局本周交易
Nvidia's Record Came From a Buyback and a Re-Rating, Not an Earnings Beat: The Math to $6 Trillion
Nvidia touched $237.88 on October 2, its first record since May, when the old high was $236.54. It closed at $233.95, up 1.3%, with a market value of about $5.65 to $5.7 trillion. What stands out is what triggered it. There was no earnings report. The board added $150 billion to the repurchase authorization, the largest increase in the company's history, taking the total to $235 billion through fiscal 2028. Morgan Stanley also restored Nvidia as its top semiconductor pick with a $300 target, and demand from Meta's AI agent services added to the mood. That $150 billion is about 2.6% of the market cap and roughly 78% of trailing net income of $192.9 billion, which is a lot of firepower for a stock already about 25% above its July low.
The valuation debate is simple. Trailing earnings are $7.91 a share, which is a P/E of about 29.6, while the forward P/E is about 19.4. That gap means analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 52%. Trailing revenue is about $303 billion, up 83%, and Nvidia's share of server GPUs is estimated near 97%. So the stock looks pricey on what it has earned and cheap on what it is expected to earn. The whole bull case rests on forward numbers surviving, and the risks sit with customers: financing strain at neoclouds and frontier labs, and export limits. The next real test is earnings on November 18.
Targets are far above the price. Morgan Stanley, Goldman and UBS sit at $300, Citi at $315, and others run up to $390, with an average near $328, about 40% above the stock. A record that is still under nearly every target cuts both ways, because almost everyone is already positioned bullish. For a milestone, $6 trillion works out to about $248.40 a share on 24.15 billion shares, which is 4.4% above the record and 6.2% above Friday's close.
On the memory side, the AI trade is confirmed. Micron guided next quarter's revenue to $61.5 billion against about $56.6 billion expected, and TrendForce expects fourth-quarter DRAM contract prices up 10% to 15%.
On the hourly chart, NVDA ended Friday at 233.84, under its 14-period average at 234.56, around the 21 at 233.38 and above the 35 at 231.90. RSI is 54.68 and the MACD histogram is -0.17, so momentum cooled after the spike to 237.88. Resistance is 237.50, support is 229.58, and the old May record of 236.54 now sits inside the new range.
My bias is bullish while daily closes hold above 229.58. I want to buy pullbacks into 231.90 to 233.40, with a stop under 229.50 and targets at 237.88 and then 248.40. From about 232.50 that is roughly 1.8 to 1 to the record and about 5 to 1 to $6 trillion. Markets were closed over the weekend, so Monday's open can gap either way, and ISM services at 10:00 ET is the first data point.
Does a record driven by a buyback excite you, or do you want earnings to confirm it first?
Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decision.

#GateMemeCarnival #SHIB
If we evaluate my previous outlook based on the September 30th close and the levels identified at that time, the result is quite clear: the main thesis was largely validated, though the upward breakout did not occur. SHIB currently remains in a decision zone.
1. What was my previous view?
The core thesis of that assessment was as follows:
* $0.000006–$0.0000061: main resistance / breakout zone
* Sustained trading above $0.0000061: potential for $0.0000067, or $0.0000072 with stronger momentum
* $0.0000055–$0.0000056: critical support
* Below $0.0000055: risk of a retreat to the $0.0000051–$0.0000052 zone
* The burn rate drop of over 91% does not determine the price on its own
* In the short term, liquidity, demand, risk appetite, and market structure are more important than burn data
The key aspect of this framework was that it outlined three scenarios rather than a single, one-way prediction.
2. What price action actually occurred?
The resistance level was where the previous outlook was most strongly validated.
SHIB reached $0.00000607 on September 26 and $0.00000601 on September 27—meaning it did indeed reach the $0.000006–$0.0000061 zone. However, it failed to sustain a position above this level with a daily close. On September 28, it retreated to $0.00000568. The closing price on September 30 was around $0.00000575–$0.00000576. It closed at approximately $0.00000579 on October 1, and data for October 2 shows a figure of around $0.000005875.
My previous scenario
Outcome
Holding above $0.0000061 → $0.0000067
Did not occur
Sideways movement between $0.0000055 and $0.0000061
✅ This scenario played out
Below $0.0000055 → $0.0000051–$0.0000052
$0.0000055 was tested, but the break was not sustained
It was particularly significant that an intraday low of $0.00000550 was recorded on September 29. However, the price recovered to $0.00000576 on the same day. Consequently, while the trigger for the bearish scenario was tested, it was not confirmed.
Conclusion: The approach from my previous analysis—"no clear direction; if resistance isn't broken, the range-bound movement continues"—aligned very well with the actual price behavior.
3. So, why wasn't the $0.0000061 level broken?
A significant part of my previous thesis has been confirmed here as well.
SHIB staged a strong recovery in September; however, this rally met with selling pressure at the resistance zone. September marked one of SHIB's strongest monthly performances of the year, with various data sources reporting a monthly gain in the range of approximately 10%–13.5%. The recovery from the July lows is even more pronounced.
However, a recovery does not equal confirmation of a trend reversal.
The structure we are currently seeing looks more like this:
A low around $0.0000041 → strong recovery → supply/selling around $0.000006 → sideways consolidation.
Therefore, the key distinction from my previous analysis remains valid:
The fact that SHIB has risen is not proof of a trend reversal above $0.0000061.
4. The previous view regarding the "burn" was particularly accurate.
There is an interesting development here.
The burn rate dropped by over 91%, falling to a level of approximately 338,000 SHIB. Despite this, the price did not collapse. This supports the thesis from my previous analysis:
“While the burn data is noteworthy, it is not the sole driver of the price in the short term.”
More importantly, in terms of absolute magnitude, the daily burn volume is not significant enough to single-handedly alter the price against SHIB’s circulating supply of approximately 589 trillion. The mechanical impact of burning 338,000 SHIB on the price is negligible.
Therefore, moving forward, it is more accurate to weigh burn-related news for SHIB as follows:
Burn → long-term supply narrative
Liquidity + volume + BTC/meme-coin risk appetite + exchange flows → short/medium-term price
This distinction reinforces my previous view.
5. A new and significant development: The movement of 500 billion SHIB to exchanges
New data has emerged here.
Approximately 500.12 billion SHIB was moved to exchanges within a 24-hour period. At first glance, this might appear to signal significant selling pressure. However, more detailed data reports that the amount of SHIB withdrawn exceeded the amount deposited—meaning the net flow was negative.
This is an important nuance.
Therefore:
An inflow of 500 billion does not automatically signal a sell-off.
What really needs to be monitored is the direction of the net exchange flow over the course of several days or weeks.
If we observe sustained net inflows rather than isolated one-day transfers, the bearish case gains weight. Conversely, if net outflows persist, it could be interpreted as a reduction in the exchange supply available for sale.
6. The bigger picture: SHIB is no longer moving in isolation
The market movement on October 2nd is also significant.
Current data shows SHIB rising by approximately 3–4%, while Bitcoin and Dogecoin are moving in a similar direction; the total crypto market capitalization has also increased. This suggests that SHIB’s movement at this stage is linked to general risk appetite rather than a catalyst specific to SHIB itself.
Additionally, Bitcoin has risen by over 40% in the third quarter of 2026, with ETF inflows contributing to the recovery. However, risks such as rising bond yields and a slowdown in spot demand are also being reported.
This is critical for SHIB because:
If BTC is strong → risk appetite for meme coins may increase → SHIB could retest the $0.0000061 level. But:
If BTC loses momentum → SHIB’s structure—already sitting below resistance—becomes even more fragile.
7. How has my current view changed?
I am not completely abandoning my previous stance; however, I am shifting to a slightly more neutral position.
The critical scenario right now:
To the upside
$0.0000060–$0.0000061
If a daily/weekly close and a high-volume breakout occur here, the $0.0000067 zone mentioned in the previous analysis becomes relevant again.
Surpassing $0.0000061 for just a few hours is not enough. What matters to me is:
breakout + close + volume + successful retest.
In the middle
$0.0000055–$0.0000061
This is the key zone right now.
The fact that the price remains within this range indicates that the September recovery hasn't been completely invalidated, though a new uptrend hasn't been confirmed either.
To the downside:
$0.0000055
This level is now even more critical.
It was tested and held on September 29.
If it breaks decisively below this level, my previous $0.0000051–$0.0000052 scenario comes back into play.
8 So, how should we evaluate my previous prediction?
Rather than a simple "right or wrong" verdict, let's break it down into its components:
Resistance analysis: confirmed.
The $0.000006–$0.0000061 range proved to be a genuinely strong selling zone.
Sideways scenario: largely confirmed.
The price remained within this band.
Bullish breakout: did not occur.
No sustained move above $0.0000061 was achieved.
Bearish breakdown: has not occurred yet.
$0.0000055 was tested, but no confirmation of a downward move followed.
The view that my "burn" thesis would be weak in the short term: confirmed.
The 91% drop in the burn rate did not cause the price to crash on its own.
Therefore, the most successful aspect of my previous outlook wasn't predicting a specific price target, but rather identifying in advance which levels would alter the scenario.
10. What will I be watching closely from here on out?
For SHIB, it makes more sense to monitor indicators in this order:
1. A break above $0.0000061
The most important technical threshold. 2. $0.0000055 support
The lower limit indicating whether the recovery has been invalidated.
3. BTC’s direction and general crypto liquidity
A stronger short-term factor than SHIB’s independent narrative.
4. SHIB net exchange flow
A trend spanning several days, rather than a single-day transfer of 500 billion tokens.
5. Actual trading volume
If volume does not increase during the break above $0.0000061, the reliability of the breakout is lower.
6. Burn amount / circulating supply ratio
One must look at the absolute magnitude of the burn relative to the supply, rather than the percentage change.
Updated framework
Close above $0.0000061 with high volume → new technical evidence that the recovery is continuing
$0.0000055–$0.0000061 → current consolidation continues
Below $0.0000055 → a scenario where the September recovery is invalidated and the $0.0000051–$0.0000052 zone regains importance
Since the current price is approximately $0.00000588, SHIB remains squarely between these two critical thresholds.
Therefore, I am not completely reversing my previous view for today; the key update is this: the September recovery should no longer be viewed as "the start of a rally," but rather as an unconfirmed rebound occurring below the $0.0000061 level.
$SHIB ‌$DOGE ‌$SPCX ‌$NVDA ‌