#Polymarket每日热点 Iran-U.S. Nuclear Deal: Can an Agreement Be Reached Before the End of May?

With only a few days left until the end of May, whether Iran and the U.S. can reach a nuclear agreement before then has become a focal point for global markets. From the latest developments, negotiations have indeed made unexpectedly positive progress, but there is still a significant gap before an official signing. Overall, the likelihood of reaching a "provisional understanding memorandum" before the end of May is high, but a comprehensive nuclear deal is almost impossible.
Positive signals: breakthroughs in three major areas
Recently, a series of favorable news has been released intensively and should not be ignored. According to U.S. officials, the Iran-U.S. framework agreement is currently "95% achieved," and both sides are negotiating the final wording. Regarding asset thawing, under Qatari mediation, both sides have reached an understanding on Iran’s frozen financial assets, clearing a major obstacle for other issues. There is also a preliminary plan for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly to be implemented in phases, with the first phase involving the unfreezing of $12 billion in Iranian assets and the start of demining the strait. Trump himself has repeatedly stated on social media that the negotiations are "progressing smoothly."
Substantive obstacles: three major disagreements remain unresolved
However, beneath the glossy statements, core disagreements have not truly been bridged. The disposal of enriched uranium is the toughest issue. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has explicitly ordered that enriched uranium stockpiles must not be exported, arguing that exporting nuclear materials would weaken Iran’s security. Although Trump recently proposed a compromise—allowing destruction of uranium within Iran under international supervision—the contest over the dominant method of disposal continues.
The deliberate shelving of nuclear issues itself is the biggest hidden danger. Iran repeatedly emphasizes that the current negotiations focus on ending the imposed war, and nuclear issues will be addressed in later stages—meaning the core dispute over nuclear enrichment rights has not entered substantive negotiations. The Trump administration has also made clear that it will not sign any agreement that paves the way for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. The fundamental disagreements have not disappeared; they have only been postponed.
There are fundamental contradictions in the statements about strait management rights. Trump claims the agreement will "open the Strait of Hormuz," while Iran emphasizes that even if an understanding is reached, the strait’s management rights will remain fully under Iran’s control, and "this does not mean a return to completely free passage before the war."
Each side’s calculations: the agreement relies on different grounds, and reasons for breach are also prepared
From the motivations of both sides, Iran faces enormous economic pressure, and the unfreezing of assets and lifting of sanctions are urgent needs; Trump, on the other hand, is eager to demonstrate diplomatic achievements. But the shadows of history are deep—Iran has repeatedly accused the U.S. of inconsistent positions and has made it clear that it will not be overly optimistic easily. Even if an agreement is signed, compliance monitoring will be prioritized. For Iran, the memorandum is more like a tool to gain a breathing space and re-enter subsequent negotiations; Trump also has a bargaining chip to show progress domestically. However, if the conditions do not allow "the U.S. to get everything it wants," he can turn hostile at any time.
Overall assessment
With only a few days left before the end of the month, it is possible that a 60-day memorandum of understanding could be signed at the negotiation table as a transitional arrangement for a ceasefire and subsequent talks. But regardless of how each side interprets this document, enriched uranium remains inside Iran, and the framework of nuclear capability has not been substantively dismantled. The real test lies in the long negotiations in the second phase.