After experiencing a bullish pattern throughout last month, this month has also seen a downward trend. However, in recent days, the market has shown clear signs of stabilization and a halt in the decline. From late May to next month, our overall outlook remains bullish.

Short-term outlook

In the short term, the resistance level for this rebound is quite significant. Attempts to break through higher have all ended in rejection and pullbacks. Essentially, this rebound is driven by unconfirmed news stimuli in the market, combined with previous strong retracements that caused a drop to 74,200, creating a vacuum below. Therefore, the market needs a rebound to clear out short positions above and balance the market structure. If we want to capture a large-scale trend, the market will likely undergo multiple retests and bottom-building phases. Otherwise, it won't be easy to fully open up space above!

Long-term bullish outlook: Why emphasize retests in the short term?

Some may wonder why, despite a long-term bullish view, we keep mentioning retests in the short term. This is actually quite understandable.

First, from a technical analysis perspective, the four-hour rebound has formed a double-top pattern at the high point. Since the double-top pattern is confirmed, it’s inevitable to be cautious of a retest in the short term. Recent news has not triggered a significant breakout, so the market needs a retest and bottom-building phase before effectively breaking through resistance.

Second, due to uncertain news flow, such as multiple reports about US-Iran tensions, which are often conflicting and hard to verify, everything depends on actual developments. Until an agreement is fully signed, there remains a risk of conflict. Relying solely on unconfirmed news stimuli makes it difficult for the market to sustain a large rally.

Where does the long-term bullish logic come from?

The reasoning is relatively simple: US-Iran conflicts are unlikely to last long. When both sides reach a point where further fighting is no longer profitable, it will be time for a ceasefire and an agreement. Currently, the urgent issues are resolving US debt problems and stimulating the economy, especially since the November elections could be affected. This was the main purpose of the recent visit to China. Additionally, signals from the Federal Reserve’s personnel changes indicate a strong need to improve the economy. As a result, rate cuts are inevitable. So, the long-term outlook is bullish. But if you ask how high it can go, I don’t see a clear target. Our role is to analyze the overall trend and short-term movements; everything else should be adjusted according to the market, following the trend! #股票交易挑战最高赢17000U $BTC $ETH