Indonesia bans Polymarket! Predicting the president's term crosses the line, Taiwan also blocks betting markets due to the nine-in-one elections

Indonesia blocks Polymarket after listing a contract related to the Indonesian president’s early resignation, with Indonesian authorities deeming it to involve online gambling and ordering a comprehensive ban on access within the country.

Predicting the president’s resignation sparks controversy; the Indonesian government issues a tough stance, declaring illegal gambling

Renowned blockchain prediction market Polymarket has recently caused a major stir in Indonesia, triggered by a prediction contract tied to the political lifespan of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.

On May 20, 2026, the Prabowo government announced an economic policy to centrally manage key export commodities such as coal and palm oil, drawing intense attention from investors and the market. The following day, a prediction market appeared on the Polymarket platform, asking whether Prabowo would resign early before his term ends in 2029, and it was promoted via the social platform X.

Image source: X/@Polymarket A prediction market appeared on Polymarket about whether Prabowo would resign early before his 2029 term ends

The contract provides three specific settlement time points for trading: May 31, June 30, and December 31. Although the market priced the probability of Prabowo resigning early before the end of this year at only 1%, 2%, and 18% respectively, this controversial contract still rapidly accumulated more than $46,000 in trading volume. This sensitive matter involving a head of state’s term touched the regulatory nerves of the Indonesian government.

The Indonesian Ministry of Communications and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) immediately issued an official statement last Friday (5/22), announcing a complete ban on Polymarket website access within Indonesia. In the statement, Alexander Sabar, head of the Directorate General of Digital Space Regulation, stressed that any platform that allows users to place bets and speculate on uncertain outcomes violates Indonesian law.

The official position is explicit: even if such platforms use blockchain technology or cryptocurrencies as the transaction medium, their essence is equivalent to online gambling, and the Indonesian government will crack down on them according to the law.

Image source: Komdigi The Indonesian Ministry of Communications and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) immediately issued an official statement last Friday (5/22), announcing a complete ban on Polymarket website access within Indonesia

Cracking down on underground economic activity, comprehensive bans on social media, and tighter regulation

Indonesia’s move to shut down Polymarket is closely connected to the country’s recent national policy of cracking down on online gambling. Since Prabowo took office as president in October 2024, Indonesian authorities have listed the elimination of illegal gambling industries as a key policy priority.

So far, law enforcement authorities have blocked about 3.4 million websites and digital content suspected of providing gambling services. According to statistics from Indonesia’s Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Center (PPATK), last year the country’s total transaction volume related to online gambling reached 286 trillion Indonesian rupiah (about $16 billion), posing a serious threat to the country’s financial order.

To completely cut off Polymarket’s dissemination channels in Indonesia, the Ministry of Communications and Digital Affairs has adopted even stricter blocking measures—starting to track and fully restrict all related social media accounts associated with the platform. The official said the core objective is to protect the general public and younger generations of digital users, preventing them from falling into situations involving financial losses and violations of national law.

Law enforcement authorities are continuing to monitor other operators online that are suspected of providing prediction market services, and are preparing to expand the list of blocked sites at any time, fully preventing Web3 services with gambling characteristics from entering the Indonesian market.

Global compliance pressure surges, prediction markets mired in legal quagmires

Polymarket’s predicament in Indonesia highlights the severe compliance challenges decentralized prediction markets face as they expand globally. As trading volume and visibility continue to soar, regulators in different countries have begun investigating and restricting this emerging industry operating in a legal gray area.

Under official compliance policies, Polymarket’s services are currently blocked or restricted in more than 30 jurisdictions worldwide, including the UK, France, and Australia. South American countries have also taken a hardline stance: Brazil and Argentina issued nationwide bans in April and March of this year, respectively.

A court in Buenos Aires, Argentina, went further by ordering local internet service providers and also Google and Apple to restrict access to the platform, citing the platform’s lack of sufficient age and identity verification mechanisms.

In the United States, controversy over the legality of prediction markets is also escalating. On May 22, the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals officially rejected Polymarket and Kalshi’s legal request seeking to stop enforcement actions in Nevada and other states. The court accepted the arguments put forward by state governments, treating contracts involving real-world events such as sports and election outcomes as unlicensed gambling products.

At the same time, the U.S. House of Representatives has launched in-depth investigations into potential insider trading issues that these platforms may involve. Last month, a U.S. Special Forces sergeant was indicted for allegedly profiting $400,000 from a contract tied to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro using confidential intelligence. South Korea’s Broadcasting and Communications Review Committee is also actively investigating whether the platform violates local illegal gambling regulations.

• Related news: A serving U.S. military officer has been arrested! Alleged insider trading in a Venezuela operation, netted $400k in prediction markets

Asia’s layout undergoes a reshuffle, platforms seek compliance breakthroughs and face future challenges

Regulatory attitudes toward prediction markets across Asia are triggering a regional reshuffle in the Web3 industry landscape. Beyond Indonesia’s hardline blockade, India has also recently classified prediction platforms such as Polymarket as prohibited online real-money gambling and implemented access restrictions.

The Singapore government has already imposed a comprehensive ban, and Taiwan, Thailand, and China have also carried out varying levels of internet blocking based on their respective regulations. Faced with a gradually shrinking Asian market, Polymarket is actively seeking new compliance pathways.

• Related news: Polymarket blocked by a court in Miaoli! Developer says they accidentally triggered Taiwan election betting rules—woken up by the police

Insiders say the platform has now shifted its business expansion focus to Japan, and has hired Mike Edrin—who previously handled Japan business for Solana ecosystem DeFi project Jupiter—as its official representative, aiming to obtain operational approvals from relevant Japanese government ministries and agencies by 2030.

Japan’s current laws impose extremely strict regulations on gambling of any form, and most predictions for sports events and political events are highly restricted. In recent congressional hearings, officials from Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) expressed serious concerns about risks of gambling addiction and insider trading that prediction markets may entail. To respond to the strict review by global financial regulators regarding the legality of prediction market operations, the development team needs to build a comprehensive identity verification mechanism and a compliance framework.

Are prediction markets fully legal? Breaking down the seemingly reasonable compliance myths spread by KOLs

In response to recent posts by community KOLs expressing, “Taiwan’s Polymarket really has been directly locked,” and claiming that “the company valuation is about $20 billion, ICE—the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange—has invested, and Trump’s son is an adviser, and prediction markets are legal in the U.S. and heading toward mainstream adoption,” a fact-check from a professional news perspective shows that this argument is full of information mistakes and mismatched claims.

Image source: Threads KOL post spreading the erroneous claim that “Taiwan’s Polymarket really has been directly locked”

Although the business data cited by the KOL is indeed based on recent developments, Polymarket did receive a strategic investment of up to $2 billion from ICE at the end of 2025, and is currently seeking a new round of valuation of $20 billion. Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of U.S. President Donald Trump, has also officially joined the platform’s advisory board.

• Related news: Polymarket catches the eye of institutions! Financial giant ICE pours in money; valuation could reach billions of dollars

However, simplifying these capital operations and political-business relationships as “fully legalized in the U.S.” and using that to pressure Taiwan to follow suit completely ignores serious legal conflicts between the U.S. federal government and state governments. Legalization in the United States is highly concentrated in the federal-level political tug-of-war and is also highly controversial. According to the latest investigation by The New York Times, inside officials at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) previously raised fraud-prevention concerns about Polymarket, and some were subject to unusually severe suspensions and investigations recently—showing that its compliance “pass” carries a strong political color.

Resistance to prediction markets from U.S. state governments has never stopped. Several state governments, including Minnesota, have explicitly legislated that such platforms constitute illegal gambling and have implemented comprehensive bans, triggering more than 30 fierce legal battles between state governments and the federal CFTC.

Prediction markets allow betting on sensitive events such as assassinations, wars, and political elections, which in most places around the world are regarded as involving moral controversy and high risks of market manipulation and illegal gambling. Taiwan has strict anti-gambling laws and a social consensus on election integrity, meaning that promoting Web3 innovation must be built on a rigorous local compliance framework. Simply applying U.S. exceptions that are heavily colored by politics to question Taiwan’s legalization timeline is obviously overly idealistic and detached from the reality of the rule of law.