Market Analysis for May 26

Trend Direction: Empty, Empty, Empty!

Technical Analysis:

BTC

Because it has already been predicted earlier, BTC rebounded near 776, and Ethereum rebounded in the 2138-2173 range, which is the top of this round of rebound. The results are basically consistent. This position has supply zone resistance and downward divergence of multiple levels of short positions' moving averages, and the trend is in line with expectations, so no further elaboration.

Looking at the weekly chart, we reserved MA30 downward extension short positions for emergencies, but unfortunately, the trend is weak. Today’s intraday focus is on the 12H MA250, which has strong support at this level, making a rebound more likely. It also resonates with the daily MA90 and support zone 73024-74157. Under non-urgent decline conditions, a short-term attempt to catch a rebound can be made, i.e., around 73718 plus or minus 200 USD (if a sharp decline occurs, try around 73024). However, the space should not be viewed as too large.

ETH

The rebound strength is relatively weaker than BTC. Personally, I set short positions at 2122, 2139, 2157, and 2173 to迎接 its arrival, but this disappointing thing is useless. From the pattern, today is likely to see a waterfall-like drop below previous lows. The support zone 1990-2041 may reach its lower edge today. You can take profit on short positions at this level, and combine it with BTC’s around 73718 to attempt a short-term rebound. That is, if ETH reaches around 1990 during the night session and Bitcoin reaches around 73718 at the same time, you can short a long position. If they do not arrive simultaneously, rely on BTC’s level.

Overall, due to the rally in April, a multi-level support structure has formed in the pattern. Therefore, a sudden sharp decline is less likely. But we cannot ignore that the market has entered a downtrend channel. Don’t expect a small probability event of long positions hitting new highs anymore; the risk is high.

Although there is still a possibility of new highs in trading, it’s clear that the current market is in the first consolidation zone after the downtrend channel opened, which is the first leg of the decline. The downtrend is likely to continue unless positive news or data come in succession. Otherwise, our trading should mainly focus on short positions.

In terms of timing, the June 18 meeting will be a key point. Past meetings 3-7 days before have often seen a rally. There are more than two weeks until then, so currently, it does not affect the scenario of a major decline.

Scenario Prediction

Since the main focus is ETH, here’s a core “wild guess” on ETH’s trend: the recent decline did not reach 1990 or 1951 as per the script, so no long positions were added, only short positions were closed (as mentioned earlier). But whether it’s the rebound reaching the zone (2138-2173) or the rebound duration (3 trading days), it meets expectations. Next, focus on whether ETH can break below 2000 intraday today. If yes, then a breakdown is expected this week. Specific levels will be announced after today’s script is confirmed.

Strategy Direction

1. Trend Positions

Hold short positions until the second half of this week. Profit targets will be decided after today’s market action.

2. Short-term Positions

Short: take profit at 1996, continue shorting on rebounds, specific levels will be announced in the group.

Long: BTC reaches around 73718, ETH goes long. If ETH is around 1990 or 1951, that’s even better. Take profit and stop-loss will be announced in the group later.

Support and resistance zones will not be posted here; please refer to previous articles.