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Can WTI crude oil prices fall below $70 in April 2026? Market forecast "Yes" option probability jumps 53.0 percentage points in one day

MeNews
According to ME News on April 18th (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that under the event "What will be the impact on WTI crude oil in April 2026?", the probability of the "Yes" option for the question "Will WTI crude oil prices fall below $70 in April 2026?" increased from 7.5% to 60.5%, a single-day rise of 53.0 percentage points.
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GateUser-c29c3db9
· 12m ago
53 points jump a bit sharply, has the market caught wind of something?
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GateUser-2eca626f
· 10h ago
60.5% now, the bettors' wallets are very honest
View OriginalReply0
MultisigOnRocks
· 16h ago
I'm wondering if some big players are dumping to manipulate expectations. Why set a price now for something in 2026?
View OriginalReply0
APuppyInTheWarmSun
· 17h ago
60.5% means the pricing is already over halfway; is the remaining 40% a margin of safety or a gap in understanding?
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FiveMinutesBeforeLiquidation
· 17h ago
This probability curve is even more exciting than DeFi yields.
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ExitLiquidityStan
· 17h ago
Predictive markets have become a new tool for macro hedging, and retail investors can now also bet on crude oil.
View OriginalReply0
Half-UnderstoodZk
· 17h ago
The correlation between crude oil and cryptocurrencies is becoming more and more interesting; macro narratives are leading everything.
View OriginalReply0
SlowerThanBlock
· 17h ago
This data update frequency is better, more real-time than the Bloomberg terminal.
View OriginalReply0

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