Monday, the US stock market is closed, and there seems to be some progress in the US-Iran agreement, but it's not advisable to be overly optimistic.

First, a nearly 7% drop in oil prices indicates significant progress in the agreement.
Second, however, this does not mean the US and Iran can reach an agreement immediately.
According to Nikkei News, the ceasefire agreement has been extended for 60 days. It’s not that the agreement necessarily takes 60 days, but the probability of reaching an agreement in 6 days is probably low.
Brother Feng has already bought on @Polymarket@ whether an agreement will be reached by May 31.
Currently, PM forecasts show a 50% chance of reaching an agreement by June 15.
Third, another reason not to be overly optimistic is oil prices.
@rngzhwn199456@ previously reminded Brother Feng that even if the Strait opens immediately, oil prices would not drop directly.
Brother Feng researched based on this teacher’s advice and found it to be true.
Because Gulf countries are already partially shut down due to the inability to export crude oil, and the underground oil pressure environment has changed.
On the other hand, during the US-Iran conflict, parts of the energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait were directly or indirectly attacked by Iran.
Therefore, some oil production capacity will need time to recover, ranging from at least 2 months to over a year.
@rngzhwn199456@ believes there will be a rush to buy oil after recovery, but Brother Feng does not fully agree.
But what is certain is that after the Strait opens, oil prices should not quickly fall back to pre-war levels, nor is a straight decline very likely.
Before the Strait opens, the previously extracted oil inventories from Gulf countries will supply more. But going forward, if production capacity does not fully recover, supply will be relatively lower… possibly causing oscillating declines.
Oil price fluctuations will affect expectations of interest rate hikes, further impacting US stocks and crypto markets, but this process may present opportunities to trade oil futures contracts.