5.25$ETH Evening Market

Just took another look at ETH, it seems to have broken through, but don't believe it. That candlestick closed with a really ugly shape, with a long upper shadow. When I see this kind of line, I feel uncomfortable, indicating that there are a lot of sellers above, pushing it back down hard.

So if it really wants to go up, the tough levels from 2131 to 2144 must be broken through, and it has to be with volume. If it can't break through, then all this talk about 2158 and 2193 is nonsense. Right now, this is just a rebound, far from a reversal—there's a long way to go, so don’t get too excited.

There's another thing I’m quite concerned about. Look at that rally, the K-line moves upward, but the volume underneath shrinks. This kind of volume-decreasing rally makes me uneasy; it feels fake. It’s like it hasn't eaten enough. How far can it run on this? Without volume to push it up, it will eventually fall back.

If you want to chase long, wait until it confidently pushes through 2125 with volume, then I’ll follow, aiming for 2158. If you want to chase short, and it drops back below 2099 with volume, then I’ll know the bulls are scared and go short. The major cycle bottom line is not to break 2092 on the 4-hour chart. If it does, the bulls will be in trouble, and the next support levels are around 2057 to 2007.

There’s still some hope on the 4-hour chart. Yesterday, it looked like it might break down, but it wobbled and pulled back, even staying above the downtrend line. As long as it can hold steady above that line, there’s still hope for a push. But 2197 is a big hurdle—if it can’t get past it, it will just keep bouncing back and forth, wearing everyone out.

Tonight, just watch these key points. If there’s a signal, go long; if not, just watch the show. As long as your capital is there, the opportunity is there—don’t force it.
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