5.25$ETH Evening Market

Just took another look at ETH, it seems to have broken through, but don’t believe it, that candle closed with a really ugly wick, long upper shadow. When such a candle appears, I feel uncomfortable, it indicates there are a lot of sellers above, pushing it back down hard.

So if it really wants to go up, the tough levels between 2131 and 2144 must be broken through, and it has to be with volume. If it can’t break through, then all this talk about 2158 and 2193 is nonsense. Right now, this is just a rebound, still a long way from a reversal, don’t get too excited.

There’s another thing I’m quite concerned about: look at that rally, the K-line moves up, but the volume underneath shrinks. This kind of volume divergence during an uptrend makes me uneasy, it feels fake. It’s like being full but still wanting more. How far can it run? Without volume to push it higher, it will eventually fall back.

If you want to chase long, wait until it confidently breaks through 2125 with volume, then I’ll join, aiming for 2158. If you want to chase short, and it drops back below 2099 with volume, then I’ll know the bulls are scared and go short. The major cycle bottom line is that the 4-hour chart shouldn’t break below 2092; if it does, the bulls are in trouble, and the next support levels are around 2057 to 2007.

There’s still some hope on the 4-hour chart. Yesterday, it looked like it might break down, but it wobbled and pulled back, even staying above the downtrend line. As long as it can hold steady above that line, there’s still hope for a push higher. But 2197 is a big hurdle—if it can’t get past that, it will just keep bouncing back and forth, wearing everyone out.

Tonight, focus on these key levels. If there’s a signal, go long; if not, just watch the show. As long as the capital is there, the opportunity is there. Don’t force it.
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