Daiwa Institute of Research economists expect Japan's 10-year government bond yield to rise to approximately 3.1% in the second half of fiscal year 2027. If the central bank raises interest rates and reduces bond purchases, and if the expansionary fiscal policies of Sanae Takaichi increase inflation concerns and government bond issuance, yields could rise further. A decline in oil prices this week caused Japanese government bond yields to fall, with the 10-year yield dropping 7 basis points to 2.690%.

MeNews

2026-05-25 08:54:47

Abstract generation in progress

ME News Report, May 25 (UTC+8), Daiwa Institute of Research economists stated that the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds is expected to rise to about 3.1% in the second half of fiscal year 2027. Fiscal year 2027 will end in March 2028. They indicated that the impact of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates and reducing asset purchases could further push bond yields higher. The economists also said that if Prime Minister Sanae Yoshimura's expansionary fiscal policy intensifies market concerns about inflation, and if government bond issuance increases, leading to worsening supply and demand imbalance, yields could rise further. Due to falling oil prices, Japanese government bond yields declined on Monday. The latest 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 7 basis points to 2.690%. (Jin10) (Source: ODAILY)

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CandleSitter

· 8h ago

fiscal dominance 警告，日债玩家小心

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CapitalFlowInATeacup

· 23h ago

The central bank's YCC has been abandoned; 3% is only a matter of time.

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GateUser-04e4dac2

· 23h ago

Sanae Takashi's fiscal expansion + central bank shrinking of the balance sheet, the double buff is fully stacked

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PerpMoodSwing

· 23h ago

Reducing bond purchases + interest rate hikes, Japanese government bond liquidity is about to have problems.

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LateBlockLarry

· 23h ago

Is the Daiwa Research Institute's prediction model reliable? Has anyone verified it?

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MoonlightTake-ProfitLine

· 23h ago

Inflation concerns are the real driver behind the rise in yields

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SandwichMev

· 23h ago

Is buying now at 2.69% for the 10-year term considered halfway up the mountain?

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RektRecoveryCoach

· 23h ago

Japan is finally heading towards normalization, thirty years.

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MistValleySignpost

· 23h ago

The second half of 2027 only reaches 3.1%, feels like the forecast is a bit conservative.

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TidalShellReflection

· 23h ago

When oil prices fall, government bond yields also decline; this correlation is quite smooth.

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Economist: Japan's 10-year government bond yield may rise to 3.1% in the second half of fiscal year 2027

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