#TradFi交易分享挑战 As of today (May 25, 2026), the gold market is in a critical phase of “high-level consolidation with a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.” International gold prices repeatedly probe around $4,500, while domestic gold prices are locked in a standoff in the 990-1000 yuan/gram range.

📊 Current Market Snapshot

- International gold price: Spot gold’s latest price is $4,558 per ounce, up slightly about 1.09% on the day. Fierce competition is currently unfolding around the $4,500 psychological level, with neither bulls nor bears giving way.
- Domestic gold price: Spot gold is around 994 yuan/gram, ICBC paper gold is also about 994 yuan/gram, while retail prices for branded gold jewelry are as high as 1380-1390 yuan/gram.

📉 Logic Behind Near-Term Pressure

At present, the market is being suppressed by a “strong U.S. dollar,” and faces three major near-term negative factors:

- The Federal Reserve turns more hawkish: The newly appointed chairman Wosh policy is more hawkish; coupled with inflation data coming in above expectations, the market has ruled out the possibility of rate cuts this year and even started pricing in rate-hike expectations. This directly weighs on gold as a non-yielding asset.
- Cooling of safe-haven demand: Positive signals from the U.S.-Iran negotiations are emerging, and the safe-haven premium driven by geopolitical tensions is fading.
- Weak physical demand: India has raised its gold import tariffs significantly, and in addition, a large number of profit-taking positions accumulated at high levels earlier. As a result, near-term selling pressure is heavier.

🚀 Medium- to Long-Term Support Logic

Although the market is seeing a pullback in the short term, the foundation of the long-term bull market remains unchanged, with strong “safety padding” below:

- Central banks continue to buy: China’s central bank has increased its gold holdings for 18 consecutive months. The global trend of central banks “de-dollarizing” and buying gold is helping to underpin the bottom line for gold prices.
- Institutions remain bullish: Institutions such as Goldman Sachs and UBS still lift their year-end target prices to 5400-6000 dollars, believing that what we are seeing now is only a consolidation and adjustment within a bull market.

🎯 Key Levels and Strategy

- Technical key point: International gold prices need to watch the $4,500 support. If it breaks, it could fall to around 4380. Resistance is at 4560-4570 dollars.
- Focus this week: Watch the upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation data, as it will determine the short-term direction.
- Trading ideas:
- Short term: Volatility is intense, so it’s mainly recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe. Be alert to a “bull-bear double kill.”
- Long term: Relying on the central bank gold-buying logic, you can consider building positions at lower levels during pullbacks—don’t chase highs.