Today, let's talk about this year's biggest gamble: Is the market fooling Trump, or is Trump fooling the market?

#Trump claims the US-Iran deal is "not fully negotiated yet"

He flips his stance in less than 24 hours.

On May 23, Trump happily tweeted that the agreement with Iran was "basically reached," and the Strait of Hormuz was about to open its doors to traffic. Sounds pretty credible, right? The dawn of peace seems just around the corner.

But on May 24, after a night's sleep, the tone changed dramatically: "Still not fully negotiated! No rush, take it slow!" He even added: "Those who criticize the deal haven't even seen the content; they're just spouting nonsense."

What can be done in such a short time? In the blink of an eye, US-Iran peace went from "about to arrive" to "logistics disrupted." It’s faster than flipping through pages.

Even more astonishing, while claiming "not fully negotiated," he still insists on maintaining the blockade—guns blazing as usual. Xinhua reports clearly that on May 24, US forces near the Strait of Hormuz still fired warning shots at approaching ships, and large oil tankers couldn’t move. Words of peace, but actions of business.

The Republican Party itself has started fighting.

Trump’s sudden brake is mainly because of trouble at home.

Hardline Republicans exploded. Graham—Trump’s golf buddy and staunch ally—publicly said the deal "is like giving Hezbollah a shot of adrenaline." Cruz was even harsher, saying if the result is Iran "getting the money, continuing uranium enrichment, and controlling the Strait," it would be a "disastrous mistake."

The White House isn’t sitting still either. White House Communications Director Zhang Zhenxi directly told former Secretary of State Pompeo to "shut that stupid mouth of his." Trump adviser called Cruz a "presidential opponent," and Cruz shot back: "Those young political tricksters pushing appeasement have no use for the president; shut up, adults are talking."

Such open bickering within the same camp has reached an extraordinary level, causing chaos inside the Republican Party. Trump initially wanted to quickly score some peace points before the midterm elections, but his own team has put him on the fire. If he signs this deal, they might swallow him whole in Congress.

Iran is also busy sabotaging.

Trump said "the deal is basically reached," but Iran immediately responded—"Stop talking nonsense, nuclear issues are off the table."

Iranian Parliament Speaker Rezaei explicitly stated that core issues like nuclear technology and uranium enrichment are not even on the table with the US. "Don’t overplay your hand." The Iranian Foreign Ministry also said that current negotiations do not involve nuclear issues; that’s for the next phase.

As for the Strait? Iran’s stance is even more extreme—"Even if the deal is signed, the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be managed by Iran," and "it will not return to pre-war conditions."

Trump envisions "full opening + abandoning the nuclear program," while Iran offers "limited passage + nuclear issues to be discussed later." This gap isn’t something that can be fixed with a couple more days of talks; they are simply on different wavelengths.

But the market doesn’t care about all this! It just goes up!

The market’s reaction to this farce is surreal—everyone sticks to their story, and the market rises accordingly.

The Nikkei 225 soared, jumping over 1,800 points in a day, up more than 3%, breaking the 65,000 mark for the first time, hitting a record high. Japanese investors probably celebrated with champagne, thinking that once the Strait opens, energy costs will plummet, and Japanese manufacturing will revive on the spot.

Oil prices plummeted as well. WTI briefly dropped nearly 6% to $90.87 per barrel, Brent fell over 5%. Based on this decline, the market seems to be saying "Iran’s oil will arrive at ports tomorrow." But reality hit back—analysts said a big truth: even if the Strait really opens, it will take weeks to clear mines, and another few weeks for oil tankers to arrive. True supply recovery will take at least two to three months.

The dollar is also active, with the dollar index falling below 99 to recent lows. The logic chain is: peace → lower oil prices → lower inflation → less Fed rate hike pressure → dollar under pressure. It sounds perfect, except for one small problem—the deal isn’t signed yet.

In short, the market is experiencing a classic "selective absorption"—Rubio says "support from seven or eight countries," and the market fully accepts it; Trump says "not fully negotiated," and the market pretends not to hear; Iran says "nuclear issues are off the table," and it’s just background noise.

More critically, Hong Kong and South Korea markets are closed for Buddha’s Birthday, and US markets are also closed Monday for Memorial Day, leading to extremely thin trading. Small amounts of capital are enough to amplify the gains to absurd levels.

This isn’t rational pricing; it’s a collective mental high—any good news immediately prompts the market to imagine a perfect ending.

What if it all falls apart?

Honestly, all current optimism is based on one assumption—"the deal will eventually be signed." But what if it crashes?

WTI could spike back to $100 or higher from $90, wiping out all the recent "peace premium." Every penny the Nikkei 225 gained is written with "peace dividend," and if oil prices reverse, that dividend could evaporate rapidly. The dollar would also strengthen again amid rising inflation expectations and resurgent rate hike bets. The three markets could reverse course overnight.

The core issue is the expectation gap—markets are already celebrating near the finish line, but Trump and Iran are still glaring at each other at the starting line.

There are three possible outcomes: the deal is signed (moderately high probability, but the good news may be overdone, leading to a "sell the news" correction); negotiations drag on (moderate probability, with ongoing talks, ups and downs, high volatility); or outright breakdown (low probability but with extremely high tail risk, with the priced-in peace premium likely to be sharply reversed).

None of these scenarios guarantees "sure win"—those chasing the rally now are essentially betting real money on Trump’s diplomatic credibility and Iran’s sincerity. Whether this deal is good or not, it’s up to you to judge.

Market optimism has already maxed out credit cards, but any bad news has yet to be priced in. #BTC #ETH