Polymarket's 35% chance of interest rate hike conflicts with bond market pricing—who understands the Federal Reserve better?

ME News message. On May 25 (UTC+8), U.S. bond investors believe that Federal Reserve Chair Waish will prioritize maintaining the central bank’s credibility in fighting inflation rather than heeding President Trump’s calls for rate cuts. The market has already prepared for a rate hike in December this year through tools such as swaps. However, on the Polymarket platform, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year is only 35%. (Source: MLion)