I've been lurking in the group chat for a long time, but I can't help but say this: recently, someone keeps saying that "the supply of stablecoins has increased + ETF funds have entered," and then deduces that "off-chain money must be buying, the market is stable." It sounds a bit off to me. Correlation can be very misleading; more stablecoins might also mean waiting, hedging, or doing arbitrage; ETF inflows don't necessarily translate immediately into on-chain risk assets, there are many frictions along the way. To put it plainly, don't rush to treat a chart as a causal chain.

The collapse of that chain game scenario is actually quite similar: inflation starts, studios come in, coin prices drop, and the spiral begins to spin, with data showing "activity," but in reality, it's just accelerating depletion. Anyway, I still follow my checklist: first see where the liquidity is exiting, then look at liquidation/margin call pressures, survive first, then talk about profits.