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Today is the last trading day before the U.S. long weekend; tomorrow is Memorial Day, markets are closed, institutions are closing positions, liquidity is thin, and small-volume fluctuations don't count.
But don't think that after the long weekend it will be a quiet week.
Next week is waiting.
It is one of the most intense macroeconomic calendars of the year.
PCE data, the inflation indicator the Federal Reserve values most.
👉 softened, the rate cut expectations have returned, supporting risk assets.
👉 heated up, staying above $78K. This number can directly reprice the entire market.
Q1 GDP revision, a reassessment of economic fundamentals.
How sensitive the market is to recession expectations will be clear when this number is released.
Kevin Warsh's first week as Federal Reserve Chair.
When a new chair takes office, the market will interpret every word he says over and over.
Is he hawkish or dovish? Is his style gradual or aggressive? We’ll see this week.
Once hawkish signals appear, risk assets will react faster than any bad data.
So, this sideways movement is essentially waiting.
In the thin liquidity of the long weekend, don’t chase directions; false breakouts are more likely in the next couple of days than usual.
What truly determines how May ends and where June starts are these three numbers next week.
DYOR, not investment advice.