Make a quick profit of 2.4 million; these 9 insider addresses understand the US-Iran war best

Article: Mahe, Foresight News

May 18th, Bubblemaps founder Nicolas Vaiman and investigation director Deebs (a former U.S. military officer, whose real name is kept confidential for security reasons) disclosed to the public: they discovered nine highly correlated anonymous accounts on Polymarket, which netted over $2.4 million from U.S. military-related prediction markets, with a win rate of 98%.

Bubblemaps provided a detailed analysis of these accounts on Twitter, showing that they almost exclusively bet on military events related to the U.S.-Iran conflict in 2026, with remarkably precise timing—often placing bets just days before key actions—and favoring long-term options with low odds.

This is not simply "luck." After visualizing the trades on Polymarket for the market "U.S. first strikes Iran before February 28," Bubblemaps discovered a massive pink cluster previously unmentioned on the X platform.

Further tracking linked the initial four accounts with five others through time windows, trading volume, and fund flow paths. The nine accounts' fund flows were highly consistent: transferring into shared wallet networks via centralized exchanges within a very short period, suspected of using professional services to hide traces.

The four core accounts each earned $400k

On the morning of February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale joint strike codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" and "Lion Roar Operation." U.S. and Israeli forces carried out nearly 900 strikes against Iran within 12 hours, targeting nuclear facilities, missile bases, military command centers, and high-level hideouts. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several family members, as well as senior Revolutionary Guards officials, were killed in the first wave of strikes.

As early as February 28, the day of the strikes, Bubblemaps publicly marked six "fresh" accounts. Most of these accounts were created and funded within 24 hours before the strikes, precisely betting that "the U.S. will strike Iran before February 28," collectively netting about $1 million (some reports say $1.2 million). The market odds at that time were extremely low, yet these accounts heavily bet on them. Bubblemaps described this as "suspected insider trading."

Five months later, they found that this cluster of nine accounts was larger and had a higher win rate.

The four core accounts were created a few days before February 28, each earning about $400k; the other five accounts were linked through overlapping fund flows and trades. The nine accounts placed over 80 bets in total, almost all on U.S. military actions: the initial strike on February 28, the specific timing of Khamenei’s removal, the ceasefire announcement, and so on. They even dispersed bets across multiple dates to maximize profits, occasionally placing small losing bets (such as on February 20), possibly to mislead others.

Bubblemaps listed nine Polymarket wallet addresses (e.g., 0x09d3273fa76282ce09f4f35a87d6f087c05f4e84) and emphasized that these accounts have long dominated the profit/loss leaderboard. The funds ultimately flowed into shared wallet networks, indicating professional money laundering or service traces.

Vaiman stated plainly: "Luck cannot explain these numbers." Deebs added that there are many potential insider sources—government officials, military planners, intelligence analysts, and even family members of military personnel.

Earlier this year, U.S. Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was accused of using confidential intelligence to bet on Venezuela special operations on Polymarket, profiting $40,000 from a $34k investment before quickly withdrawing and attempting to delete his account. Polymarket actively cooperated with law enforcement, ultimately leading to charges. Van Dyke’s case is regarded as a landmark example of insider trading in prediction markets.

This time, the nine-account cluster earned six times more profit, with an even higher win rate, all concentrated on U.S.-Iran military events.

Bubblemaps shared the exclusive investigation with "60 Minutes," which aired on the evening of May 17, sparking considerable attention. CBS reported that Polymarket has established AI monitoring and blockchain evidence collection systems; once suspicious activity is detected, law enforcement is notified, emphasizing that "insider trading is unwelcome on the platform."

As of press time, Bubblemaps has not directly linked the nine accounts to any specific entity or government department, only stating that "the association and near-perfect win rate raise serious suspicion."

Anti-Insider Trading and Copy Trading Inside Information

Insider trading has made many market participants feel unfairly treated, prompting prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to take more measures against it.

In late March, Polymarket updated its DeFi platform and market integrity rules for U.S.-regulated exchanges under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The updated rules clearly define three core prohibited insider trading behaviors:

However, rules always have loopholes. Since insider trading cannot be completely eradicated, some so-called "insider copy trading projects" are also controversial. These applications compile lists of trading accounts with abnormally high win rates or flag suspicious timing and abnormal amounts, helping users copy these trades with one click.

Kreo’s selling point is helping users "find insider traders earlier than others," while Polycool directly displays a "Polymarket insider trading guide" on its official website, stating "This is not the stock market; betting with non-public information won’t land you in jail, and the rules of decentralized prediction markets are entirely different."

The question then arises: are insider copy trading addresses considered violations?

Currently, there has been no official response.

But so-called "insider copy trading platforms" like PolyGUN and Polycule were hacked earlier this year, suffering losses ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars.