ETH 15-minute short-term rally of 0.66%: institutional selling and increased on-chain activity create a tug-of-war

From 02:00 to 02:15 (UTC) on May 25, 2026, ETH saw a short-term upswing within 15 minutes, with a return of +0.66%. The price moved in a range of 2094.11 to 2113.26 USDT, with a swing of 0.91%, indicating that market volatility increased.

The primary driver behind this unusual move was the tug-of-war between improved on-chain settlement capacity resulting from protocol upgrades and institutional sell pressure. The Fusaka hard fork raised the block gas limit and reduced Layer-2 data costs. Gas fees fell to around $0.15, a historical low, which helped sustain a continuous rise in on-chain activity. Over the past 24 hours, trading volume exceeded $4.6 billion, providing support for the price from the bottom.

Meanwhile, negative capital flows also emerged in parallel. According to monitoring, major institutions sold ETH worth $45.4 million in that single day, ETF net outflows reached $21.3 million, and ETH recorded a 24-hour net outflow of $185 million. Vitalik Buterin’s personal wallet also transferred about $14 million worth of ETH to exchanges, further increasing near-term sell pressure. However, despite the net outflow trend, the price still posted a positive return, suggesting that the market has strong capacity to absorb short-term selling. The increase in on-chain activity effectively mitigated downside pressure.

The current market is in a phase of structural adjustment, with capital outflows occurring alongside price gains, reflecting that bullish and bearish forces are rebalancing. In the short term, it’s important to watch for changes in institutional fund flows and whether on-chain activity can be sustained. If capital outflows accelerate, it may trigger a risk of short-term pullbacks. It is recommended to monitor the support level around 2100 and the subsequent ETF capital flow direction.