⚠️GLOBAL INFLATION WAR AND MILITARY MOVEMENTS IN THE STRAITS: MARKETS’ CRITICAL WEEK

The week of May 25 - 29, 2026 points to a highly critical period in which markets are likely to experience high volatility (swings), both in terms of macroeconomic data and escalating geopolitical risks.
Here are the standout developments of this week and their possible effects on financial assets:
1. The Week’s Most Important Developments and Economic Data
Geopolitical Tension (US-Iran and the Hürmüz Strait):
Military activity around the Hürmüz Strait and US-Iran tensions are increasing upward pressure on oil prices, triggering concerns about global stagflation (a combination of economic stagnation and high inflation).
US Core PCE Data (Thursday):
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—an inflation indicator the Fed values the most—will be released on Thursday. The path of inflation will determine the Fed’s interest-rate trajectory.
US Q1 GDP (Growth) Revision (Thursday):
The growth performance of the US economy in the first quarter of the year will become clear. Strong growth could signal that interest-rate cuts will be delayed.
Domestic Agenda:
The CHP’s “Butlan” operation raises domestic political tensions.
Turkey’s May Economic Confidence Index will be closely monitored. It is being closely watched whether the weak outlook in the confidence index will continue.
Market Opening Note:
On Monday, US stock exchanges and banks will be closed due to the “Memorial Day” holiday in the US, so trading volumes on the first day of the week may be relatively low.
2. How Will the Markets Be Affected?
👑 Gold and Silver (Precious Metals)
Direction: Upward (Positive)
Reason: Geopolitical risks in the Hürmüz Strait and rising global inflation costs (especially due to high PPI and oil prices in China) are directing investors toward gold, a “safe haven.” If the US PCE data comes in higher than expected, short-term profit-taking may be seen, but geopolitical risks continue to keep both the lower and upper bands moving higher. Silver also tends to follow gold’s rise despite concerns about industrial demand.
🏢 Borsa İstanbul (BIST 100)
Direction: Sideways / Negative Pressure
Reason: The CHP’s Butlan operation, stagflation concerns in global markets, and the weak course of the domestic economic confidence index are putting pressure on Borsa İstanbul. However, alongside geopolitical risks, positive differentiation may be seen in commodity and energy companies. A decline in global risk appetite could limit foreign inflows.
🪙 Bitcoin and Crypto Assets
Direction: Under High Volatility / Pressure
Reason: By nature, crypto assets are a risky asset class. Escalating geopolitical risks and uncertainties regarding US inflation (PCE) may reduce investors’ risk appetite, creating selling pressure on Bitcoin. However, the search for direction will be sharp and sensitive to shifts in global liquidity perception and the reaction to US bond yields.
🇺🇸 US Stock Markets (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones)
Direction: Critical Threshold / Negative Bias
Reason: Despite Nvidia’s record-breaking balance sheet announced last week, export restrictions for China and geopolitical risks limited enthusiasm in technology stocks. If the PCE inflation data expected on Thursday is high, sharp sell-offs could be triggered in US stock markets, driven by expectations that the Fed will keep rates high for a long time. After the holiday on Monday, the direction will become clearer on Tuesday.
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