Bitcoin rebounds to $77,000, but CryptoQuant analysts point out that structural bullish momentum has disappeared.

The Impulse indicator has not yet returned to the zero line, so the rebound is not confirmed.
Macroeconomic factors—DXY, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, VIX—are once again dominating the market.
ETF 30-day capital flow momentum has plummeted from a peak of $13.21 billion to $362.8 million, indicating weak U.S. purchasing power.
Although funding rates are approaching bullish levels, ETH bullish sentiment is more positive, and BTC is neutral to slightly bullish.
This divergence suggests the rebound is more about short covering than new capital entering.
The real signal is: the market is shifting from “narrative-driven” to “macro pricing.”
Bitcoin is no longer independent of traditional assets but is being influenced by U.S.-Iran conflicts, interest rate expectations, and bond yields.
The risk is that if macro pressures persist, the rebound could merely be a relief rally within a downtrend.
If Coinbase premium index turns negative and U.S. capital is absent, the rally will lack a foundation.
What needs to be observed now is not the price, but the capital structure—who is buying, who is selling, and whether the macro trend is turning.
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