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A chilling piece of data: the ETH burned on Ethereum each day has dropped from 3,665 coins at the beginning of 2024 to just 3 coins now. Not 3%, just 3 coins. A 99.9% drop.
The reason is simple—all transactions have moved to L2, and the mainnet no longer receives gas fees. ETH has gone from "ultrasound money" to "settlement layer security service," sounding respectable, but essentially: ETH is no longer deflationary, no longer burning money, only supported by staking yields.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to 0.027, hitting a new low since July 2025. This is not short-term volatility; it’s a narrative shift. When the most active on-chain transactions are happening on others’ chains, you say you’re "secure," but how much is security really worth? The market is re-pricing this answer.
The core contradiction of ETH: the more successful L2 becomes, the less valuable L1 is. If this contradiction isn’t resolved, ETH’s "big rebound" will forever be a story for next year.