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On Sunday night, I took a quick look at the charts, and the S&P is at 7473. Only 44 points away from the all-time high of 7517. The VIX is at 16, which feels a little too quiet.
NVDA dropped 1.9% on Friday. The decline isn't large by itself, but don’t forget it is the engine of this tech bull market. XLK overall rose 1%, but the locomotive is already slowing down. The last time NVDA weakened before the sector was in Q4 last year, and everyone remembers what happened afterward.
Next week’s calendar isn’t easy. Wednesday is the FOMC minutes, Thursday is GDP revisions, and Friday is PCE. The market is currently pricing in a soft landing with controlled inflation. Any data that disappoints will make the 16 VIX the last layer of window paper.
I’m not calling a top. But when everyone is on the boat and no one is wearing a life jacket, the wave may not be small.
Keep an eye on 7517 and 26707 next week.